Winter is basically over as March is still warming and heating demand is falling. The US National Weather Service is calling for warmer than normal temperatures in the 6-10 day forecast but returning to more nominal temperatures in the middle of the US in the 8-14 day forecast. Ontario looks to be still a bit warmer than normal.
So why were the NYMEX spot price up earlier this week? Prices never go in a straight line and there has been some talk about producers shutting in and reducing forecast sales volumes. However, it takes time for these decisions to impact the physical market, but with the low prices this cannot be surprising news. To finish the point, April futures are down today 7 cents.
The NYMEX summer strip is trading at 2.28, down 1.4 cents from yesterday and next winter is trading 3.38, down 2 cents.