Natural Gas Market Updates

  • January 8, 2025 – Market Update

    Happy Storage Day. The EIA storage report for the week ending January 3rd was released early this week, since tomorrow is the National Day of Mourning for former President Carter in the US. Federal offices will be closed, along with the New York Stock Exchange, but the NYMEX will remain open. Be prepared for some…

  • January 7, 2025 – Market Update

    The NYMEX February front month contract was down 23 cents (-6.4%) to $3.43 US/mm today. I will be interested if the February contract closes below December 27th’s low of $3.293 (the narrow, isolated candle), since traders might take it as a sign that the next leg will be down. Of course, we could also rally…

  • January 6, 2025 – Market Update

    Some more volatility today. The front month is up 10% on cold weather (the NYMEX close was $3.70 UD/mm), but next summer is only up a bit (the close was $3.42 US/mm).  Production is down from 106.0 Bcf/d to 102Bcf/d on Monday, mostly due to the cold weather causing freeze offs. And with even colder…

  • January 3, 2025 – Market Update

    Happy Friday The EIA reported that for the week ending December 27th, -116 Bcf of gas came out of storage in the lower 48, less than the expected -122 to -126 consensus.  Second miss in two weeks. Unsurprisingly, the market sold off.  The NYMEX February front month contract sold off to $3.34 US/mm, down 8%. …

  • January 2 2025 Market Update

    Welcome to 2025 The NYMEX is holding in tough at these levels as the February front month contract refuses to continue the sell off from last year (that is to say two days ago). Last trade $3.68 US/mm, up five cents (130pm) The EIA storage report will be released tomorrow.  The current consensus is for…

  • December 31 2024 Market Update

    The market sold off today after that big rally yesterday. The weather models changed in the last 24 hours to slightly warmer and the NYMEX February front month contract sold off 32 cents to $3.62 US/mm, down 8%, as of 2pm.  That was a big move yesterday and a retracement after a big move is normal. …

  • December 30 2024 Market Update

    Cold Snap in January The forecast changed over the weekend and is now expected to be quite cold in the beginning of January, which caused a big rally this morning at NYMEX.  The February front month contract spiked up 23% to $4.20 US/mm but sold off some over the trading day.  Last trade $3.90.  Prices…

  • December 27 2024 Market Update

    Happy Friday EIA reported a withdrawal of -93 bcf from storage for the week ending December 20th.  This was less than the -98 bcf consensus forecast, so a miss (but a smaller miss to the downside than the big miss to the upside two weeks ago). Last year this week we saw a withdrawal of…

  • December 24 2024 Market Update

    Merry Christmas Eve Another rally day today.  The NYMEX January front month contract is up 29 cents to $3.95 US/mm, but on light volume.  Not many traders are in today so take today’s move with a grain of salt. The spread over February has grown to 45 cents.  Don’t forget that January expires next week…

  • December 23 2024 Market Update

    Happy Monday Was going to a quiet week with not much trading, yet we have already been bouncing around.  The NYMEX January front month contract opened up 20 cents higher overnight (the futures begin trading at 6pm on Sunday night) and made a new winter high of $3.94 US/mm.  As of 3pm, it is trading…

  • December 20 2024 Market Update

    Happy Friday What a week.  The NYMEX January front month contract is up $3.28 US/mm Friday close to $3.73 last today (1pm), a rally of 45 cents.  There are various explanations: cold weather, big storage withdrawals, and/or growing LNG demand. Let’s break it down.  Most of this rally was in the front months so I…

  • December 19, 2024 – Market Update

    Happy Storage Day. The EIA reported a withdrawal of -125 Bcf of natural gas from storage for the week ending December 13. Still a big withdrawal, but not as big as last week’s -190 Bcf. Expectations were for a withdrawal of -126 to -130 Bcf, so this is basically in-line with expectations. This compares to last…

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