Natural Gas Market Updates

No spooks this Friday the 13th, another day without much NYMEX movement. The March front month contract is currently up only 0.5% at $3.23 US/mm, other contracts across the curve being down a few cents. Ontario’s imports to the US through St. Clair (Dawn) have nearly returned to the 2-Year Max highs set back December…

The EIA reported that for the week ending February 6 (when Fern’s impacts were dissipating), there was a -249 Bcf withdrawal from the L48’s storage. Inventories are now about 6% lighter than the 5-year average, and the EIA decreased their projected end-of-season inventory for the L48 by 8% in their Short-Term Energy Outlook. The reported…

Another day without much NYMEX activity or other updates to report. NYMEX futures prices creeped up, but only gained a few cents per contract by the end of the day. Reuters is expecting a withdrawal of -257 Bcf for tomorrow’s storage report, another monstrous number. As a reminder, last week’s withdrawal of -360 Bcf just…

Pretty quiet day with next to zero change in NYMEX future prices, but the front month’s delta off the low hit 14 cents by mid-day. Overall prices are holding steady after yesterday’s sell-off. Dawn cash prices settled at the lowest price since the long weekend in mid-January 2026. Like predicted, temperatures in Ontario and the…

Welcome back to another week, starting off with a strong sell-off of 28 cents in the March 2026 NYMEX future front month contract, settling at $3.14 US/mm, the rest of the 1-year curve being down 14 cents on average. Not much volatility either, prices held at that level over the whole day. The move comes…

Another mild day to finish the week. Just a small gain for NYMEX futures, the March 2026 contract up 8 cents mid-day. St. Clair (where Dawn facilities are located) imports versus exports have been swinging considerably these past few weeks, but are starting to return to late-December/early-January levels, signaling that more gas is now flowing…

The EIA reported that for the week ending January 30, 2026 (the bulk of this past cold snap), utilities in the lower 48 states withdrew -360 bcf from storage. A huge volume, but somewhat less than anticipated. NYMEX was down about 10 cents in reaction, but slowly climbed back up throughout the rest of the…

Not much to report this Wednesday afternoon… NYMEX climbed about 4% today despite some warmer temperatures on the horizon for the US and Canada (at least, after one more brief cold spell this weekend), spot prices at Dawn so far are staying at typical seasonal prices. Canadian production is consistently holding at near multi-year highs,…

Enbridge reported that as of February 1, 2026, Dawn and Tecumseh storage inventory together are sitting at 119 Bcf, meaning that over the past two weeks we had a net change of -69 Bcf (or -76 PJs), easily the largest withdrawal since we withdrew -87 PJs in late January 2019. Currently, Dawn is now only…

February 2026 begins with a gift that buyers were waiting for: NYMEX natural gas futures decreased by about 26%, March 2026 settling down over a dollar to $3.24 US/mm. Temperature forecasts adjusted significantly warmer for both the US and Canada in the 8-14 day period, reversing previous demand estimates. Time will tell if this forecast…

Another wild day to close out the week, and month. NYMEX March 2026 is currently trading at $4.17 US/mm, up 26 cents from yesterday’s settle, with the 12-month strip also being up by about 4% on average. Although Canadian temperatures should climb back to the 10-year normal over the weekend and remain there for a…

This morning, the EIA reported that for the week ending January 23, 2026 (shortly after this cold front materialized), the lower 48 states pulled -242 Bcf of gas out of storage. Inventories are still above the 5-year average, but now only by about 5%. Given the heavy heating demand, we can expect the next couple…