February 2026 begins with a gift that buyers were waiting for: NYMEX natural gas futures decreased by about 26%, March 2026 settling down over a dollar to $3.24 US/mm. Temperature forecasts adjusted significantly warmer for both the US and Canada in the 8-14 day period, reversing previous demand estimates. Time will tell if this forecast will hold though, since meteorologists have also warned of a continued risk of blocking and another big cold snap in February.

A reminder that GLGT capacity will remain limited to 1.16 Bcf/d through until the end of February due to maintenance, on top of a Force Majeure event which caused eastbound flows to decrease by 0.16 Bcf/d in the same period (normally the pipeline can handle 1.6 to 2.4 Bcf/d flows). In short, less supply arriving at Dawn and the US Midwest, a factor that weighs slightly bullish for Dawn spot prices, even for when we get warmer days.