A mild and uneventful day in Toronto, but a big one for crude. As of 3:15 pm, WTI is up $9.19/Bbl to $96.41/Bbl, driven by the new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowing to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, alongside reports of fuel tankers being set ablaze in Iraqi waters.

On the gas side, the NYMEX 12-month strip saw little movement and is sitting around $3.90/MMBtu. That came despite a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal, with EIA storage down 38 Bcf versus a Reuters expectation of 53 Bcf, and the muted reaction may suggest financial traders are hesitant to lean into that bearish data until there is more clarity on Iran. Meanwhile, the Canadian temperature outlook shifted materially warmer, with average temperatures rising 9°F on the day and Alberta seeing a 34°F revision. Dawn cash has also remained fairly rangebound so far this month, trading roughly between $3.50 CAD/GJ and $3.88 CAD/GJ, suggesting the Iran-driven volatility has not meaningfully spilled into that market. (JM)