Natural Gas Market Updates

And just like that, February is over and Spring continues to draw closer. At least on our end, we’re looking forward to some warmer weather. The conversation around natural gas has been about the extreme cold (and freeze-offs) being behind us and warmer seasonal temperatures being ahead of us. The huge withdrawals out of storage over…

Happy Storage Day As expected, the EIA’s storage report came in as a massive withdrawal; the lower 48 states pulled -261 Bcf of gas out of storage for the week ending February 21, 2025. This was a very large withdrawal but not unexpected since last week was quite colder than normal. The NYMEX April front…

The NYMEX March contract expired today at $3.864 US/mm.  The contract hit a high of $4.476 last Thursday, and sold off to a low of $3.906 on Monday.  Then Tuesday buyers came in a bid it up to $4.186.  The story I read (and it makes sense to me) is that there was a large…

Now that the February cold has passed, let this market update recap what we’ve seen over the month. First, it has been cold. No one was truly expecting a cold winter until a polar vortex settled across North America. This weather pattern hit the hardest in January, but has somewhat lingered into February. This has…

As February starts to wrap up, so do the cold temperatures. It is currently 4 degrees in Toronto, with expectation that it will be above zero for the next few days. NOAA’s Temperature Outlook is also showing normal and warmer than normal temperatures going into early March. As a result, prices are down. The NYMEX…

Looks like the weather models have been switching up over the past couple days. Yesterday, temperature outlooks turned colder, and today they turned warmer (at least in the short term). As a result, NYMEX prices have been bouncing around. Today, the March front month contract fell about 5% to close at $4.16 US/mm, undoing some…

This has been quite the rally.  Pundits are scrambling to explain it. Some of the market talk has been about the bullish impact of Trump resuming the approval process for new LNG facilities.  Yes, that will boost demand in the long term, but stop and think for a minute: a new facility takes years to…

Welcome back from a long weekend. I don’t know about you, but I was cold all weekend and I had to shovel a lot of snow.  The pundits are talking all about the cold weather and freeze-offs (when the well head freezes and halts production), and this cold weather will remain for another week. The NYMEX March…

And another rally to finish the week. The NYMEX front month contract price (in the widget below) paints a very clear slow and steady increase. Going into the long weekend, know that temperatures are set to drop next week. In Ontario, Monday and Tuesday are expected to be the coldest days of the month, maybe…

Believe it or not, we are half-way through February. The storage report came in in-line with expectations; a nice withdrawal of -100 Bcf for the week ending February 7, 2025. Not as crazy of a withdrawal compared to what we’ve been seeing this season, but the withdrawal for next week is sure to be huge.…

The March front month contract continues to creep upwards, closing at $3.57 US/mm, up 6 cents. On the temperature front, late February is warming up to near-normal, but the short term is looking quite cold. Additionally, meteorologists have their eyes on a few significant winter storms in the coming days, which will drop a lot…

Another rally today: the NYMEX front month contract got up to $3.57 US/mm in the morning, but sold off in the afternoon to settle at $3.52, just 7 cents up from yesterday. Not a crazy move, but the market is still showing some anxiety as colder forecasts come in and geopolitics remain uncertain. The consensus…