Today marks the third consecutive day of downward movement in the NYMEX. The May front month settled at $3.49 US/mm (on some decent volume too). This is an eight-week low. Analysts agree that the decrease is partly due to heating demand falling off in the near-term, but mostly due to anxiety surrounding Trump’s tariffs with the rest of the world. Seems like on top of the usual Widow-maker constraints (storage inventories, volatile spring temperatures, scheduled maintenance reducing production), there is another variable: a trade war from a doubled-down administration. Something else to keep in mind. In this case, the market is concerned that global demand for natural gas may decrease overall.

According to weather models for both the lower 48 and for Canada, this is supposed to be the coldest day in this short cold snap. Here in Toronto, we woke up this morning to a blanket of snow on the ground and icy roads. But from this time next week, temperatures will have warmed up to the 10-year normal and heating demand will fall off.

Speaking of spring, maintenance season is also well underway. There have been reduced deliveries from several key pipelines in the lower 48 as they undergo scheduled maintenance and upkeep. Even then, production has been relatively strong, enough so that expectations are for a net injection of +47 Bcf into the lower 48’s storage over the past week.