Natural Gas Market Updates

A moderate rally for NYMEX natural gas today, the one-year curve settled up about 10 cents on average, unsurprising given the news of another outbreak of conflict between the USA, Israel and Iran. WTI is up 8%, now trading above $70 USD/barrel on an anticipated increase in global demand for American crude. It’s a similar…

The week finishes off without much volatility in NYMEX futures trading as meteorologists expect a strong likelihood of warmer temperatures for the entire lower 48 in early March. Although this weekend will likely be one last small stretch of cold, it’s safe to say that the cold period that weather models initially projected for late…

As expected, the lower 48 states withdrew a mere -52 Bcf from storage over the past reporting week, bringing US gas inventories back to the 5-year average, and marking an end to a very heavy few weeks of withdrawals this winter. For reference, the average withdrawal for this period is about -168 Bcf. The soft…

Ontario and the US Northeast as a whole are forecasted by the Euro ENS to follow the same pattern in average temperatures over the next couple weeks: first briefly dipping below Normal (the coldest being early next week), then steadily climbing to well-above average after that. Likewise, NOAA’s monthly outlook suggests that March could bring…

An update for Dawn customers: some of the maintenance work being done on the GLGT pipeline wrapped up today a few days ahead of schedule, restoring its 1,510 MMcf/d capacity and helping support flows from Manitoba to Dawn at a full, higher capacity. With US imports to St. Clair also holding strong, Dawn supply is…

Another quiet day to kick off the week without much to update, besides on the weather front. NOAA’s near-term temperature forecasts are expecting warmth on the way for the most of the USA, but still a small likelihood of below-Normal temperatures in early March along the eastern Canadian border. Meanwhile, the Euro Ens model revised…

Pretty bland week for NYMEX prices, futures having held more or less at where they settled after Tuesday’s sell off, and the same pattern for cash prices at Dawn. With strong production, mild temperatures, and limited operational flow constraints, the market has been stable and is balancing out. Interestingly, Union Gas has switched from heavy…

The lower 48 states withdrew -144 Bcf from storage this past reporting week, only a couple Bcf less than experts forecasted. The market did not move much in response, NYMEX futures drifted off some and settled within a penny or two across the curve. Average production in the US remains strong, and continues to slowly…

Gas markets were down again today, but with some cold on the way for both the USA and Canada, futures ultimately settled basically unchanged from yesterday. Most of the cold for Canada is currently concentrated in the West (overnight lows in Calgary are -30 degrees Celsius), but Ontario will feel the drop next week. That…

A big sell to kick off the week, the March 2026 front month contract settling down 21 cents to $3.03 US/mm, and the following 11 months settling down about 12 cents on average. Production is very strong and weather is currently mild, but be aware that the Euro Ens model did note some colder revisions…

No spooks this Friday the 13th, another day without much NYMEX movement. The March front month contract is currently up only 0.5% at $3.23 US/mm, other contracts across the curve being down a few cents. Ontario’s imports to the US through St. Clair (Dawn) have nearly returned to the 2-Year Max highs set back December…

The EIA reported that for the week ending February 6 (when Fern’s impacts were dissipating), there was a -249 Bcf withdrawal from the L48’s storage. Inventories are now about 6% lighter than the 5-year average, and the EIA decreased their projected end-of-season inventory for the L48 by 8% in their Short-Term Energy Outlook. The reported…