The NYMEX front month continued its upward climb today, with a $0.06 USD/MMBtu, or 2%, increase to reach $3.33 USD/MMBtu. Weather forecasts in the US shifted slightly colder this morning, supporting natural gas bulls. Previous forecasts were trending above normal (indicating less demand) but have since shifted to the 10-year average. The increased cold is focused in the Northeast and Midwest US. LNG demand and production both remained near record levels.

AECO prices remained near zero in cash today but should recover in the coming weeks as temperatures are forecasted to drop below 10°C by the midway point of October. Criterion Research also estimates that LNG flows have recovered, achieving record flows of approximately 700 MMcf/d. Constraints on ABBC pipeline (flows to California) and GLGT (flows into Michigan/Dawn) are the main culprits that continue to hamstring the region. (PB)