Natural gas markets started the day up, and those gains were only extended following the EIA storage report. The newly appointed front month, Dec-25, rallied $0.14 USD/MMBtu or 3.7% to settle at $3.96 USD/MMBtu. EIA injections for last week were 74 bcf, which closely aligned with the WSJ survey of 73 bcf. In recent weeks, the surveys have underestimated the gain, so the market behaved bullishly to the accurate report. EIA storage volumes now sit at 3882 bcf, 29 bcf higher than 2024, and 171 bcf higher than the 5-year average.

New weather forecasts indicate a cooler Ontario and warmer western Canada over the next two weeks. Ontario is forecasted to be slightly warmer than normal, with western Canada well above normal for this time of year. This could weaken the AECO-Dawn basis that has been strengthening since early October, following colder weather in Alberta, increased flows to LNG Canada, and reduced capacity restrictions out of AECO. (PB)