This week’s NYMEX rout finally ended today as the prompt month settled at 3.01 CAD/GJ, up $0.07 USD/MMBtu or 2.4%. Despite today’s gains, this is the second consecutive week of losses for the NYMEX. The market is down 3% this week, following last week’s 7% decrease. Continued high storage injection volumes and warmer-than-normal weather are the bearish drivers. Record LNG and reduced production provide limited pushback.  

Traders have largely given up on the market running out of gas in Winter 2026, as the infamous “Widow Maker” (Mar-Apr) spread is only $0.08 USD/MMBtu. The spread is significant as March is the last withdrawal month, and April is the first injection month. When there is concern for gas supply, the spread widens greatly. Today’s historically tight spread supports the belief that there will be more than enough gas at the end of this winter season. Despite comfort over storage exit volumes, Jan and Feb contracts are still priced aggressively, well above last year’s settlement. (PB)