Welcome back. As usual, NYMEX gas prices are all over the place. Yesterday, a trading day for Americans, the NYMEX was down considerably, down about 24 cents in the front month. This morning, the market popped up and then some, the front month increased 31 cents to close at $3.39 US/mm.
The general story is that residential and commercial demand is expected to pick up soon and last through to the end of the month, US production levels have dipped a bit, and cooling degree days are starting to pick up. There is an especially high volume of trades in July 2025, which could suggest some pressure down the line between Utilities, who need gas for winter storage, and those who need air conditioning in the summer.
However, today’s big move probably has more to do with financial trading behavior rather than being a genuine reflection of today’s market. Regardless, the pattern over the coming days will paint the market’s direction more clearly. Current Canadian temperatures are a bit below normal (with some cooling rain on the way), but will edge up to the 10-year normal in due time. The US is more of a mixed picture, average to below average temperatures in the East and South are likely.
Better luck next time to the Leafs fans out there. Maybe look ahead to the 2026 Winter Olympics!