Happy Summer Solstice! It’s been a pretty crazy week for NYMEX natural gas. The July front month closed at $3.83 US/mm, down about 16 cents since yesterday’s close, but traded to a high of $4.14 US/mm earlier in the day.

It’s gotten hot out. Temperatures are currently about normal in the US and Canada, but the ECMEN model is expecting some heat next week for both countries, and NOAA is expecting a strong likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the coming days.

Meanwhile in the Middle East, tensions have only been rising between Irael and Iran (and now the US), with truly devastating consequences for their denizens… Another consequence of this war is a possible disruption to today’s global energy supply chain. Many in the industry are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, a channel of water between Iran and the United Arab Emirates where a massive amount of Crude and LNG is shipped from the area to sell to international markets. If Iran were to close down this channel, international demand for American LNG and crude would surely increase significantly. For now, it’s too early to say what exactly will happen, but every day is a new development here.

Finally, yesterday’s storage report came in to be an injection of +95 Bcf into the lower 48’s storage. Another big one, but the first time in weeks that the build is less than 100 Bcf.

The overall picture for this week: geopolitical tensions which could increase demand for American gas and crude, weather is getting warmer, and the injection momentum has slipped. Bullish!