While NYMEX natural gas rallied another whopping dollar and a half in the February 2026 contract (settling at $6.80 US/mm, with two days left of trading before the front month rolls), more curtailments and delivery interruptions are being called by utilities across Ontario and Quebec, causing some spot markets to soar in price. It’s not uncommon to see $150+ CAD/GJ prices at certain delivery points amid this kind of highly inverted market with so many restricted delivery paths. Union gas did restrict some storage withdrawals and deliveries from Dawn to the TCPL over the weekend, so this is a risk at Dawn too, but maybe not to quite the same extent that a city in Quebec with zero storage can spike in this environment.

Updated temperature outlooks show that the extreme likelihood of below-normal temperatures should start to weaken in early February, especially for the Ontario region. The ECM Ensemble model also is predicting a return to normal temperatures one week from today. Currently, NYMEX Feb 2026 for the next trading session is down about 4%.