Ontario and the US Northeast as a whole are forecasted by the Euro ENS to follow the same pattern in average temperatures over the next couple weeks: first briefly dipping below Normal (the coldest being early next week), then steadily climbing to well-above average after that. Likewise, NOAA’s monthly outlook suggests that March could bring a mild end to what ended up being quite a bumpy winter.

Expectations for tomorrow’s storage report range from a withdrawal of -70 to just -27 Bcf in the lower 48 states, well below last year’s -252 Bcf and the five year average of -168 Bcf. This combined with strong gas production in the US could signal traders that supply is in a good position for this time of year. Dawn flows are currently balanced between injections and withdrawals, but NGTL (the production region in Alberta) is under some pressure after having a cold week, resulting in a heavy reliance on local storage.