Natural Gas Market Updates

Quiet day. The NYMEX April front month contract traded down below $4.00 US/mm before bouncing up a dime. Last trade $4.05. The weather is getting warmer and heating demand is falling off. In a normal year, we would see some seasonal low prices with moderate spring weather, but this year isn’t normal.  There isn’t a consensus yet for…

Welcome back to a new week. Hard to believe we are halfway through March. Prices have dipped on the NYMEX; the April front month contract fell about 10 cents to close at $3.99 US/mm. This week is likely to remain volatile as all eyes remain on the US, especially with its ongoing relations with Putin…

Happy Friday A quiet, warm Friday to finish up the week. The NYMEX April contract drifted around today, but ultimately settled up 8 cents at $4.11 US/mm. Besides a little Canadian economic update this morning, not much fundamental news has come out. Traders were likely covering some shorts. Manufacturing sales, wholesale sales, and new motor…

Happy Storage Day Today’s storage report came in at a withdrawal of -62 Bcf for the week ending March 7, 2025. A larger draw than the expected -58 Bcf, and the market had a slightly bullish response. The NYMEX front month contract traded up from $4.03 US/mm to a high of $4.19, but then sold…

Today’s the day: NYMEX natural gas futures finally got clobbered! The April front month contract decreased 37 cents to settle at $4.08 US/mm. It’s the biggest single-day sell-off we’ve seen in a few months. The rest of 2025 is down as well, down 26 cents on average. Whether or not prices will remain at this…

Another day, another headline. Or three. Looks like Donald Trump is not happy about Ontario’s surcharge on exported electricity, and is back to threats of annexation and financial ruin. Doug Ford just announced that this surcharge is now suspended. Also, the US has doubled tariffs on Canadian steel, but apparently has moved to undo this…

Welcome back to another week. Unfortunately, the trade war fiasco continues. Premier Doug Ford spoke this morning to a room full of reporters, announcing the implementation of a 25% Tariff Response Charge on Ontario-generated electricity exports to the US (notably New York, Michigan, and Minnesota), starting today. He said he’s not afraid to increase the…

Happy Friday March’s weather forecast is getting warmer (Tuesday is expected to be 11 degrees Celsius and sunny in Toronto), and the NYMEX April front month contract sold off in the morning. Yesterday’s EIA storage report was a miss, and we are expecting smaller and smaller withdrawals out of storage as we move closer to Spring. This…

Happy Storage Day The EIA reported that for the week ending February 28th, -80 Bcf was withdrawn from storage in the lower 48 states. The consensus estimate of -96 Bcf, so call this one a miss. The market sold off initially, but drifted back up to where was before the announcement. This volume is a big…

The American Commerce Secretary Lutnick said yesterday that Trump could decide on tariff relief as soon as today (Wednesday). The key word is ‘could’ and who knows what ‘relief’ means. When he announced this, the market stabilized, but it is still very nervous. Trudeau and Trump are expected to speak today on the phone. Why do…

Well, it happened. Trump has tariffed Canada ostensibly over enough fentanyl to fill two potato sacks.  However, the underlying theme often mentioned is a nouveau protectionism belief that the US should make everything at home.  It is the same playbook from the 1930s that began with the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs and ended with the Great Depression.…

Happy Monday, and Happy March! The NYMEX April front month contract opened down and traded in the $3.82 US/mm range overnight but then rallied in the morning to a high of $4.22 at noon. It sold off in the afternoon, last trade being $4.14 US/mm. Feels like traders are adjusting their position for the new month.…