Natural Gas Market Updates

Happy Storage Day The EIA reported that for the week ending February 28th, -80 Bcf was withdrawn from storage in the lower 48 states. The consensus estimate of -96 Bcf, so call this one a miss. The market sold off initially, but drifted back up to where was before the announcement. This volume is a big…

The American Commerce Secretary Lutnick said yesterday that Trump could decide on tariff relief as soon as today (Wednesday). The key word is ‘could’ and who knows what ‘relief’ means. When he announced this, the market stabilized, but it is still very nervous. Trudeau and Trump are expected to speak today on the phone. Why do…

Well, it happened. Trump has tariffed Canada ostensibly over enough fentanyl to fill two potato sacks.  However, the underlying theme often mentioned is a nouveau protectionism belief that the US should make everything at home.  It is the same playbook from the 1930s that began with the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs and ended with the Great Depression.…

Happy Monday, and Happy March! The NYMEX April front month contract opened down and traded in the $3.82 US/mm range overnight but then rallied in the morning to a high of $4.22 at noon. It sold off in the afternoon, last trade being $4.14 US/mm. Feels like traders are adjusting their position for the new month.…

And just like that, February is over and Spring continues to draw closer. At least on our end, we’re looking forward to some warmer weather. The conversation around natural gas has been about the extreme cold (and freeze-offs) being behind us and warmer seasonal temperatures being ahead of us. The huge withdrawals out of storage over…

Happy Storage Day As expected, the EIA’s storage report came in as a massive withdrawal; the lower 48 states pulled -261 Bcf of gas out of storage for the week ending February 21, 2025. This was a very large withdrawal but not unexpected since last week was quite colder than normal. The NYMEX April front…

The NYMEX March contract expired today at $3.864 US/mm.  The contract hit a high of $4.476 last Thursday, and sold off to a low of $3.906 on Monday.  Then Tuesday buyers came in a bid it up to $4.186.  The story I read (and it makes sense to me) is that there was a large…

Now that the February cold has passed, let this market update recap what we’ve seen over the month. First, it has been cold. No one was truly expecting a cold winter until a polar vortex settled across North America. This weather pattern hit the hardest in January, but has somewhat lingered into February. This has…

As February starts to wrap up, so do the cold temperatures. It is currently 4 degrees in Toronto, with expectation that it will be above zero for the next few days. NOAA’s Temperature Outlook is also showing normal and warmer than normal temperatures going into early March. As a result, prices are down. The NYMEX…

Looks like the weather models have been switching up over the past couple days. Yesterday, temperature outlooks turned colder, and today they turned warmer (at least in the short term). As a result, NYMEX prices have been bouncing around. Today, the March front month contract fell about 5% to close at $4.16 US/mm, undoing some…

This has been quite the rally.  Pundits are scrambling to explain it. Some of the market talk has been about the bullish impact of Trump resuming the approval process for new LNG facilities.  Yes, that will boost demand in the long term, but stop and think for a minute: a new facility takes years to…

Welcome back from a long weekend. I don’t know about you, but I was cold all weekend and I had to shovel a lot of snow.  The pundits are talking all about the cold weather and freeze-offs (when the well head freezes and halts production), and this cold weather will remain for another week. The NYMEX March…