Dawn spot pricing is definitely now feeling the combined pressure from a few different factors, most notably the high heating demand and restrictions on interruptible storage withdrawals. Exports to the US are particularly high, and Union Gas withdrawals have been hitting multi-year highs. Amid these constraints, the variable Dawn Day-Ahead Index for today settled at $90.69 C/GJ, by far the highest spike over the past few years. Spikes like this do happen every so often during extreme cold, but typically do not last, especially when it’s still physically possible to move gas around. Meanwhile, NYMEX’s volatility remains as the February contract wraps up trading, open interest rapidly declining. The futures price was down 14% in the afternoon, settled up 15 cents, at $6.95 C/GJ, and is back down 7%.
Looking ahead, Canadian temperatures are expected to warm up this weekend to be normal, even above normal in most provinces (besides Ontario). Canadian production remains elevated. In the US, freeze offs are starting to recover from what was likely their peak yesterday, gaining back 1,833 MMcf/d today. It could be a few days though of continued strain before the demand for Canadian gas eases.