In a bumpy trading session, the NYMEX front month settled $0.08 USD/MMBtu or 1.7% lower at $4.47 USD/MMBtu. The market fluctuated between the -2% and +2% range as traders weighed the start of withdrawal season with a slightly warmer 11-15 day forecast in eastern North America. Small weather changes in the forecast have a much larger demand impact in the winter which is why markets are so sensitive to them.

As mentioned, the EIA weekly storage release displayed its first withdrawal of the season, with storage inventories 14 bcf lighter than last week. The storage withdrawal fell directly in line with the WSJ analyst survey. EIA storage inventories now rest at 3,946 bcf, 23 bcf (-0.6%) lighter than last year and 146 bcf (3.8%) heavier than the five-year average. If cold weather materializes, expect the surplus to the five years to quickly narrow as the last five Decembers have been very warm relative to normal. (PB)