In an action-packed Friday, the NYMEX front month dipped $0.08 USD/MMBtu or 1.8% to settle at $4.57 USD/MMBtu. The calendar spread (Dec-25 to Nov-26) fell an average of 1.3%. Early downward movement was driven by profit-taking bulls after yesterday’s push to 3-year highs. The movement gained further momentum following bearish EIA injection data to break a negative 5% correction level. The momentum quickly reversed at the $4.40 USD/MMBtu threshold as traders remained wary of the December cold.

The EIA injection report surprised analysts to the high side with an actual injection volume of 45 bcf, pushing L48 storage volume to 3,960 bcf. This injection was much greater than the WSJ survey estimate of 34 bcf. The injection equals last year’s volume for this week, keeping inventories 6 bcf (0.2%) lighter than last year and 172 bcf (4.5%) heavier than the 5-year average. With the cold experienced earlier this week, analysts expect next week’s release to mark the start of the gas withdrawal season. (PB)