Happy Halloween!

The EIA reported +78 bcf injection for the week ending Oct 25th. 

Leading up to the release of the storage report, I was seeing quite a spread in the estimated injection number.  Normally, most estimates are really close to each other, but not this week.  However, this time I don’t think the important takeaway was the difference between the actual number and the consensus estimates.  Rather, this is the second week in a row that the injection was larger than the injection this week last year.  Prior to this, we saw 14 consecutive weeks of smaller injections than the 2023 data. 

Furthermore, with the warmer-than-normal weather predicted to last two more weeks, we might see some further injections in November.  We have enough gas in storage for the winter, but with the possibilities of more injections, traders will now start looking at the possible implications for next summer.

The market sold off before the data release and then sold off again afterwards.  Not a panic sell-off, but a slow steady decline. Chart from Trading View:

 Additionally, the NYMEX December front month contract traded down 14 cents to $2.71 USD/mm, below the Oct 21st low.  The summer 2025 strip traded down 10 cents to $2.93, which is below the important $3.00 level and below the lows of the last 3 months.

Before I ring the bell to announce the bear has won, I will wait until Monday for better price discovery when traders are back at their desks and ready to attack a new month.

On the hurricane front, there is an invest in the southern Caribbean Sea which now has a 60% chance of getting organized.  There is still a lot of heat in the water that would help energize a hurricane.  Furthermore, there is another area of disturbance just north of the Dominican Republic with a 10% chance of getting organized. Lots to keep an eye on here. [WFG]