Happy Monday

Well, that was quite the day. 

Last week was all about the rally but today was the counterpoint.

The NYMEX December front month contract sold off 24 cents (7.9%) to $2.85 USD/mm.  The Winter 24-25 strip was down 24 cents to $2.80.  Both were down on good volume.

NYMEX December Front Month Contract (USD/mm)

NYMEX 2024-2025 Winter Strip (USD/mm)

The summer 25 strip was traded down 14 cents to $3.00 (back to that support level).  I would like to see a convincing break below $2.95 before I start believing that we are seeing a real change in market sentiment, because this level has proven to be a resilient line for the last three months.

NYMEX 2025 Summer Strip (USD/mm)

We are looking at warm weather and low heating demand into the beginning of November. 

An important item in the news today was an increase in producer output over the last four days.  Not enough to announce that times have absolutely changed, but an important indication that perhaps producers have decided to modify their business plans to take advantage of winter pricing.