Ontario is getting one more cooler stretch before the spring demand decline really takes over. The latest forecast moved about 11°C colder than the prior run, with temperatures dipping into the mid-single digits by midweek before recovering closer to the low teens later in the period. That should give res/comm demand a bit of support in the near term, but this still looks more like a short-lived cold shot than a major shift in the balance. Starting June 2026, the 12-month NYMEX strip is averaging US$3.51/MMBtu, while the 12-month Dawn strip is averaging C$4.17/GJ.

The bigger Ontario story is the flow reversal. U.S.-sourced supply through St. Clair came back hard, improving Dawn hub supply and helping push Dawn back into stronger injection mode. That lines up with the storage data as well: from April 15 to May 1, Dawn moved from 67 PJ to 70 PJ, while Tecumseh held at 27 PJ, taking total posted storage from 94 PJ to 97 PJ. Broader Canadian balances still look fairly loose as seasonal demand eases and storage builds, while WTI is firmer near US$105–106/bbl as crude continues to price geopolitical risk and tighter physical logistics. (JM)