Happy Friday
The NYMEX April front month contract had a nice sell off to $3.86 US/mm overnight but bounced back up to $4.05 in the morning. This marks the first time in three weeks that it traded below $4.00.
The weather is still seasonal and expected to be normal into the beginning of April. Next week’s storage number is expected to be an injection of +11 Bcf. If the weather keeps warming up, we might actually have a net injection for the month of March. A big change from how we felt back in February.
In terms of production, we are seeing some conflicting data. Some sources are saying that production came off this week, and others are saying that production increased a bit. My takeaway is that when you are dealing with ‘estimated’ production, sometimes the data just isn’t precise. think we will need to wait until April before we will get a clear picture of what producers are doing. That being said, the trade war will heat up on April 2nd and that will be more important than production volumes in the short run. Of course, over the long term, only supply and demand matters.
Hopefully you can relax and have a great weekend (without thinking about natural gas).
