Welcome back to a new week. Hard to believe we are halfway through March.
Prices have dipped on the NYMEX; the April front month contract fell about 10 cents to close at $3.99 US/mm. This week is likely to remain volatile as all eyes remain on the US, especially with its ongoing relations with Putin and trade with Canada. Regardless, there is some fundamental news…
Expected temperatures in both Canada and the Eastern US have dropped over the rest of the month. Before, they were expected to be above-average, now they’re expecting near-to-below average. Not a huge change, and averages are growing increasingly warmer as spring approaches, but significant regardless. Some models estimate that this cold could add up to 10 HDDs over the 10-15 day period.
Production has been increasing moderately. LSEG is reporting an average output of 105.9 Bcf/d so far in March, compared to 105.1 Bcf/d in February.
Finally, Enbridge storage had some injections for the first time since Autumn. Tecumseh, a smaller storage facility that is designed to withdraw gas very quickly, injected 1 PJ, and Dawn, the bigger basin, injected 2 PJs. For the lower 48, there is a very broad range of estimates for the upcoming storage report, some even suggesting a net injection. We shall see.