Natural Gas Market Updates

January 23, 2025 – Market Update

Happy Storage Day

The EIA reported that for the week ending January 17th, Utilities withdrew -223 Bcf out of storage. Consensus was for -242, so it was a miss this week.

The NYMEX February front month contract was up just above $4.00 US/mm and sold off after the report.  But certainly the sell off was muted for such a big miss.

We are now sitting basically on top of the 5-year average. Next week’s report will most likely be larger since the coldest days will be included in the next report, but the market is a forward pricing mechanism and the weather is looking to warm up to ‘normal’ by the end of the month.  Barring another blocking pattern that brings the Arctic cold down to North America, we might enjoy these normal temperatures.  Certainly the 8-14 day forecast supports that but be mindful that these forecasts can change.

Keep in mind that in a larger sense, it is not purely supply and demand driving price right now.  There has been a series of confusing and contradictory reports out of Washington DC with regards to tariffs.  Some reports say that they could start as early as February 1st, others say April 1st. The important point for the short-term is that markets hate uncertainty, and in our market, uncertainty means higher prices.

The question comes down to this: will Washington tariff Canada and if they do, will those tariffs include energy?  If these tariffs rumours come true, how will Ottawa respond?  Will this response include energy? We are living in interesting times.


NYMEX Natural Gas Front Month

(One Day Delayed)

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