The NYMEX March front month contract did not have a big reaction with the news, but slowly ground higher during the day. From the low at 10am of $3.30 US/mm, the market made a high of $3.40 at 1:30pm. The move higher makes sense with the cooler forecast for both the US and Canada. The 2-week forecast calls for 413 heating degree days (a measure of heating demand), which has been gradually increasing. Note that during January, this number was over 500. The week after next is expected to be significantly colder than the 10-year normal temperature. Note that the US will be warmer than the January cold snap, but Canada is expected to be colder than January (ugh). Ontario is looking to have the coldest day of 2025 on the 18^th. Remember that this longer term forecast can move around; it turned colder last weekend, then went warmer on Tuesday, then today jumped back down. 

Production is still growing. February average daily output is 106.2 Bcf/day so far. If this level of output persists, we will see a record. Output hit a high this time last year, but Spring arrived in February and prices collapsed in the first quarter. We ended March with a record amount of gas in storage, producers cut production, and we saw prices stabilize then rally. I don’t think we will see the sub $2.00 US/mm prices like we did last year, but I think that if production continues to increase, we ought to see prices sell off.

That being said, the Spectre of a Trade War is looming over our heads like the Sword of Damocles. Trump gave us 30 days to make him happy or we do Monday all over again, which would render these weather forecasts less significant.