Natural Gas Market Updates

February 4, 2025 – Market Update

Trump has un-tariffed Canada for a month. I doubt this is the final chapter of this story. Check out this opinion piece from the Wall Street Journal titled The Dumbest Trade War in History.

Okay, now to some natural gas bullet points…

  • Over the weekend, the US forecast turned much colder than Friday’s forecast. Then today (much like the tariff threat), it reversed and is now warmer than yesterday’s forecast. On average, the lower 48 will be around normal for the first half of February: likely warmer for this week and likely cooler the week after.
  • The Canadian forecast has warmed up, especially in Ontario for the 11-15 day period. But overall, Canada will be a bit cooler than normal. Right now, it is very cold in Alberta and spot gas at AECO spiked up over $2.50 CAD/GJ at one point yesterday.
  • Production is looking good, but I am still waiting for the output to exceed the end of December. I’m sure the American producers are loving these higher prices, so production will follow.
  • The buried lead in the news today was that China has retaliated with tariffs on American products, including 15% on American LNG. I’m sure the owners of the new LNG plant in BC are working overtime to get the place fully operational.
  • Thursday’s storage report is expected to show a withdrawal of -172 Bcf for the week ending January 31st, which is exactly in line with the 5 year average for this week.


NYMEX Natural Gas Front Month

(One Day Delayed)

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