Now that the February cold has passed, let this market update recap what we’ve seen over the month.

First, it has been cold. No one was truly expecting a cold winter until a polar vortex settled across North America. This weather pattern hit the hardest in January, but has somewhat lingered into February. This has caused a lot of heating demand.

Second, production was interrupted by freeze-offs. Daily output in the lower 48 hit a record 106.7 Bcf on February 6, but dipped down to 100.5 Bcf on February 19 when the cold was at its peak. Today on the 25th, production is back up to 104.3 Bcf, and is set to keep increasing as lingering interruptions come back online (and as current high NYMEX prices motivates producers to increase their production). This caused a lot of gas to be pulled out of storage, both in the US and here in Ontario.

Third, LNG feed gas demand continues to hit record highs. February so far is seeing an average of 15.6 Bcf/d being flowed to American LNG export facilities. This doesn’t seem like a massive number at first glance, but this demand is steady and growing. The news related to feed-gas demand plays an increasingly important role in NYMEX prices.

The NYMEX March 2025 contract expires tomorrow, and April will become the front month. Enjoy the warm weather this week, because next weekend is looking like it will dip slightly.