Looks like the weather models have been switching up over the past couple days. Yesterday, temperature outlooks turned colder, and today they turned warmer (at least in the short term). As a result, NYMEX prices have been bouncing around. Today, the March front month contract fell about 5% to close at $4.16 US/mm, undoing some of Wednesday’s rally. It is clear that as storage empties and the count-down to winter’s end keeps ticking, these temperature forecasts only become more important to traders.
Speaking of storage, the EIA reported a withdrawal of -196 Bcf for the week ending February 14th. A decently sized withdrawal, one which was slightly larger than predicted. What is sure is that the next report will be even bigger to capture this week’s heating demand. The lower 48 is currently sitting at 181 Bcf below to five-year average.
