The market sold off today after that big rally yesterday.

The weather models changed in the last 24 hours to slightly warmer and the NYMEX February front month contract sold off 32 cents to $3.62 US/mm, down 8%, as of 2pm.  That was a big move yesterday and a retracement after a big move is normal.  We are going to have to give the market a few days before shake itself off and then we will have a better idea of what it means for the month of January 2025.

Let me take a moment to revisit a theme I discussed back in the summer; whenever there is a big move, the pundits will find confirmation.  The market is up in the morning, they talk about shortage of supply but when it sells off in the afternoon, they talk about excess production, but they always say it with complete conviction.  It is easy to get caught up in this kind of ‘news’.

The reason I bring this up is that I was doing some research about this cold snap and I came across a source (okay, it was a youtube video) that was forecasting the possibility of “FEET OF SNOW” next week with complete conviction.  Notice that it was a forecast of a possibility.  Well, in weather as in natural gas there is always a possibility of anything happening.  So don’t let the noise get inside your head and affect your decision making. The weather will be cold and then after that it will get warm again.

What I will predict for certain is that we wish you a Happy New Year and Prosperous 2025 from all of us at Rite Rate.