Happy Monday

Was going to a quiet week with not much trading, yet we have already been bouncing around.  The NYMEX January front month contract opened up 20 cents higher overnight (the futures begin trading at 6pm on Sunday night) and made a new winter high of $3.94 US/mm.  As of 3pm, it is trading down 10 cents to $3.64.  Feels like the whippy trading of a thin market (not much liquidity so a buy or sell order can move the market). 

I mentioned on Friday that 80% of the time, the high for the winter is put in by the end of December.  I think this might be the case this year.  January is trading 30 cents above February (a big premium) and March is basically trading flat with April so traders are not worried about the end of the winter.  That being said, anything can happen.  It was quite cold over the weekend and forecasts are for temperatures to rise going into January.  The 8-14 day forecast is for basically normal temperatures across the lower 48 for the first week in January.  However, a few cold snaps in a row like this weekend and market sentiment will change.

Also, the EIA storage report is out Friday this week.