Welcome to December.

The January NYMEX front month contract opened at $3.22 USD/mm, much closer to Friday’s open than its close (despite the rally that day). It was a steady day of trading, the price only decreasing by about two cents (today’s close is $3.20). So far, the December 2024 contract has been trending down.

Putting this shift down into context: Prices rose in the past couple weeks on expectations of colder weather in early December, but the new expectation for mid-December is near-normal and above-average temperatures for most of the country, much more than yesterday’s estimate, see below.