Welcome to the January NYMEX front month contract, we began with a dramatic plummet as American traders now head home for Thanksgiving. The January 2025 contract opened at $3.47 USD/mm and fell 27 cents to close at $3.20.
An updated prediction for tomorrow’s storage report is a net decrease of -2 bcf. Not a big change from the earlier prediction of +1 bcf, but it is still a switch to a withdrawal.
Production has been increasing, slowly but surely. The lower 48 states have been producing 101.4 bcf/d so far in November, up 0.3 bcf/d from 101.1 bcf/d in October.
Overall, the story is coming together to say that heating demand is increasing, and that supply and storage levels are adjusting accordingly. Keep in mind that cold weather is expected in the lower 48 in the coming days, lasting from about now until December 4th. It looks like it won’t get too cold here in the GTA, but expect the NYMEX to react (once the traders return to their desks).
Happy Thanksgiving to any American readers!