Continuing yesterday’s rally in full force, the December NYMEX contract increased by 14 cents today to $3.34 USD/mm.
It’s official, the week ending November 15th marks the first storage withdrawal of the season, with the EIA reporting a decrease of -3 bcf from storage. Expectations did adjust throughout the week from +20 to +6, but a withdrawal was certainly a surprise. With winter temperatures nearly here, it will probably be withdrawals from now on.
NOAA released two very significant forecasts today. First is the seasonal outlook for the next three months, which predicts a likelihood of below-average temperatures in the Northwest, and above-average temperatures in the South and East Coast. However, what this outlook doesn’t capture is the possible variation in temperature throughout the season (this winter is expected to have more cold snaps than last winter’s singular snap in January).
Second is the 8–14-day outlook, which blankets the US with a likelihood of below average temperatures in early December. This also helps put the rally into perspective. Bundle up!
