We currently have a prediction for the EIA storage report this Thursday of an injection of +20 bcf for the week ending November 15th. This would be the fifth week in a row of above average injections. Perhaps this will be the pattern of the future; warmer summers with elevated electricity demand, but warmer autumns with delayed heating demand. November injections may also become the norm.
But looking ahead to December, we will be seeing some seasonally normal temperatures (i.e. it’s going to get cold), with a normal amount of heating demand.
Producers are still waiting to increase production. Currently, LSEG estimates an average production of 100.6bcf/day so far in November, as compared to 101.3bcf/day in October. The weather has been mild and so have outputs. Perhaps with the cold weather around the corner, we will see production increase. But if they run true to their previous behaviour this year, we will have to wait for prices to increase first.