It is election day in the United States.
All eyes are on the election results and not the energy markets. It would be foolish to pretend otherwise.
I offer three predictions:
- We won’t immediately know who won, and it won’t be accepted for a while.
- We won’t know what exactly they will do and how it will impact our market for an even longer while.
- Pundits will fill in the space between not knowing and knowing with all sorts of (mostly useless) stuff.
My effort at punditry is to advise you to keep an eye on the USD/CAD foreign exchange to get an idea of what is coming. Look for a break below .71 or above .76 USD/CAD.
The economic / trade policies of the new administration (either way) will affect the exchange rates. Remember that the USD/CAD exchange rate has a big impact on the price for natural gas prices in Canada; NYMEX NG is priced in USD so if the CAD gets stronger, the price of natural gas in Canadian will get cheaper (assuming everything else remains the same).
Other than that, all other predictions are just opinions in costume, and Halloween was last month.
