Hello November! I hope your Halloween was fun.
It was a relatively quiet Friday as the NYMEX December front month contract traded down -1.15% to a close of $2.676 USD/mm.
The market is continuing its sell off. It certainly feels like the bear has taken over and the market will continue to fall for the near future. The rest of winter strip (Dec to Mar) has broken to lows not seen since March 2021.
Summer 2025 strip is still below the $3.00 line I mentioned, and is now trading at $2.91, a level not seen since Jan 2022. Winter 25-26 strip is down this week, but is still holding above support.
As for weather, temperatures in Ontario are still expected to be above average going into mid-November.
Finally, out of the two tropical disturbances in the Caribbean Sea, one has a 70% chance of forming a cyclone over the next week, and the other has a 10% chance. Both are expected to stay within the Caribbean and bring heavy rain to the area, but we will keep an eye on these storms.