October 21, 2024 – Market Update

Happy Monday

Beautiful weather here in Toronto this week, and it looks like the warm weather will continue.  The NOAA 8-14 Day Outlook is showing lots of red.  Cooling demand is down as current temperatures are above average for this time of the year, but supply is also down. According to LSEG, production in the US decreased from 101.5 bcf/d to 101.8 bcf/d.

Today, the NYMEX has retraced some of its downwards move, which is reasonable.  Markets don’t travel in a straight line. The November front month contract is up 7 cents to $2.33 US/mm.  Chart from Trading View:

The December contract is up 5 cents to $2.81. The Winter 24-25 strip is up 4.5 cents to $2.80. Significantly, these three are all below the Aug/Sept lows. The Summer strip is $3.01, which is just at that support level of the Aug/Sept lows.  The market is confident about this winter, but there is a lot of time before next summer for prices to move.

The two storm systems from Friday both developed into named storms over the weekend, but neither one is a threat to any natural gas infrastructure.  One is heading out to the Atlantic and the other is traveling across Mexico to the Pacific.

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