The NYMEX November contract is the front month and although today’s trading was not very volatile, we are still sitting around $2.90 USD/mm, a high that hasn’t been reached since this summer’s peak prices in June.
To put the price increase in context, here are some points to consider:
October averaged 102.1 bcf/day, down from August’s average of 103.2 bcf/day. Although the weekly EIA injection numbers are well below the 5 year average, natural gas in storage is still 6% above normal for this week in the year. Preliminary estimates are for a +60 bcf injection for this Thursday’s report for the week ending Sept 27th.
The average temperatures are much lower in October than in August, but not cold enough to turn on the furnace. The red in this map doesn’t mean the same demand as 4 weeks ago.
Third, demand for natural gas also reduced when millions in the US were left without power as they endured the impacts of Hurricane Helene.
Looking beyond Helene, the NOAA has their eyes on a few new storms. A couple are swimmers far out in the Atlantic, but the closest is a disturbance brewing in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea; the NOAA reports that it has a 40% chance of forming into a cyclone this week, and it is important to monitor its progression because it could impact LNG export facilities on the Gulf Coast. [WFG FN]