NYMEX November front month is catching its breath after the big rally as the market is assessing what to do next. Last trade $2.80 US/mm.
Hurricane Helene is expected to make landfall in the Florida panhandle tomorrow and move into Georgia. There is no threat to LNG facilities, nor onshore infrastructure. That being said, the narrative in the news is that Helene is at least partially responsible for the sudden rise in prices. Once the storm makes landfall, it should bring a lot of cooling rain to the Southeast and reduce whatever cooling demand there still exists for this time of year. I will be interested in how the November contract responds.
I have been looking at the production numbers and I do see a reduction in output recently. Estimates for this week is an output of about 100 bcf/day, which is below the monthly average of 102 bcf/day (note that these short term estimates are subject to revisions). That being said, this is the time of the year for reduced demand (low cooling demand and low heating demand) so therefore it is also the best time of the year for scheduled maintenance. Producers and pipelines take equipment offline to get it ready for the heavy heating demand in winter.
Preliminary estimates for the EIA storage report tomorrow is for an injection of +53 bcf, which is up from 4 weeks ago but still below the 5 year average. [WFG]