Welcome to RiteRate’s Natural Gas Market Update Archive, your database for all of our past posts. If you’ve missed anything over the past few weeks, fell free to come here at any time to catch up or reference. In the case of any additional questions on any of our content or offerings, send us an email at [email protected] or give us a ring at (416) 862-0322. Happy reading!
May 7th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone, we have finally made it through the week! As we look back on the last few days of trading, prices of the June natural gas futures contract have traded within a narrow band between $2.90 and $3.00 as seen in the chart below. This price action reflects the lack of any significant fundamental factor driving the prices up or down, which is typical for the low demand shoulder season between the winter and summer. Prices will likely trade sideways to lower as we approach a seasonal low point of natural gas consumption for this period of the year. However, we expect that a tighter supply and demand balance in the summer and fall will support higher prices in the near future. The low rates that we are offering today will not stick around forever so be sure to consider one of our fixed rate natural gas plans to help manage your energy costs. With the Mother’s Day holiday on Sunday, the RiteRate team would like to wish you a wonderful weekend. -SM
May 6th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday folks! The markets have been relatively stable today after the U.S. Energy Information Administration released their weekly storage report. Yesterday’s estimated injection numbers were very tight to the report with a recorded 60 billion cubic feet that were put into storage. As a result, the prompt month futures contracts traded within 5 cents to yesterday, thus showing minimal impact on the market today. Although today was rather quiet in trading, prices can change quickly as we have seen throughout February and April. As we begin to enter a more demand intensive period over the summer, this may be a good time to consider one of RiteRate’s fixed rate natural gas plans. For more information Visit the Home and Business tabs, or give us a call at (416) 862-0322 to learn how we can help you manage your energy costs. -SM
May 5th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone. It is another cold afternoon with a cool weather system that will be supporting natural gas demand through the middle part of May. Despite this increase in demand, we saw that the June natural gas futures contract traded in a narrow range ultimately settling down 1% to 2.938. Market participants are looking ahead to the EIA storage report where utilities across the United States likely injected a range of 49-76 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage. Because this is much lower in comparison to the 5-year average, we expect that this will be supportive of natural gas prices in the weeks ahead. Be sure to check out our market update tomorrow to see the results and additional commentary! -SM
May 4th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everyone! The June natural gas NYMEX contract continued to bump around today, hitting a high of US$3.00/MMBtu before settling basically unchanged from yesterday. Colder weather continues to remain a possibility into mid-May, and production continues to sit at a low even compared to last month, coming in slightly above 88.5 billion cubic feet (Bcf). The demand supply balance looks rather tight for the time being, but as long time readers probably know, the market could remain unchanged or change in a heartbeat. Make sure to never miss an update by tuning back-in tomorrow to get the latest on natural gas news! ~CL
May 3rd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Monday and welcome to May everyone! The May prompt month NYMEX natural gas contract traded over quite the range today hitting a low of US$2.90/MMBtu early on the day before climbing to US$2.975/MMBtu. The contract settled three cents up from Friday but continues to trade steady at the time of writing just under the US$2.97/MMBtu mark. Some colder and wetter weather is expected for the coming week, dropping below number and holding up to mid-May before a recovery closer to the 10-year average. Production also continues to be on the decline but as mentioned previously, a recovery is expected as we pass April maintenance season. Although natural gas news is quieter now compared to the winter, there still is quite a bit changing. Make sure to tune back in tomorrow to stay up to date with our daily natural gas market update! ~CL
April 30th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone, can’t believe we’ve already made it to the last one of April! Today marked a relative quiet trading day. The June NYMEX natural gas contract did make a slight following yesterday’s drop, settling US$0.02/MMBtu higher. Not much has changed in terms of fundamentals, and May is expected to return closer to normal with maintenance ending and weather forecasted to be closer to normal. As the market looks to soften a bit, now could be a great time to lock-in a fixed rate natural gas with RiteRate. While the general market outlook is bullish, meaning higher prices in the future, by locking one steady rate now, you won’t have to worry about what the market does. Make sure to visit our Home and Business sections, or give us a call at (416) 862-0322 to learn about how we can help you! ~CL
April 29th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday everyone! Today marked the first day of the June NYMEX natural gas trading as the prompt month. Following the momentum of the May contract yesterday prior to settlement, June traded near it’s relative high. Following the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report this week however, we saw quite a steep reversal. The industry average estimate came in at 11 billion cubic feet (Bcf), with a quite a wide range from a withdrawal of 2 Bcf to a injection of 28 Bcf. The actual report came in at 15 Bcf, just slightly over the average but enough to create bearish momentum, with the June contract settling US$0.049/MMBtu down from yesterday. ~CL
April 28th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Wednesday folks. Today marked the settlement for the May natural gas futures contract. Prices for the prompt month appreciated $0.052 to close out the session at $2.925 with subsequent contracts for the balance of the summer and the winter settled modestly higher. The rally observed in recent weeks has been driven by pipeline maintenance that has led to declines in natural gas production levels. In combination with additional weather-driven demand throughout the month of April, balances have tightened, however both of these factors may be short-lived in duration. Heading into tomorrow’s trading session, market participants look towards the storage report from the EIA for a glimpse into the supply and demand balance for the previous week. Be sure to check in with us tomorrow afternoon for the results. ~EG
April 27th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Following yesterday’s price rally, the May prompt month NYMEX natural gas contract continued to climb, settling US$0.083/MMBtu up from yesterday. The rising prices continue to result from dropping production levels reported in the lower-48. Tomorrow will mark the last trading day of the May contract, so it will be interesting to see the battle between the current fundamentals and market participants as they look to offset their open positions. Temperatures going into May look to remain mild for the time being, so no major change in demand on the current horizon. Make sure to tune back in tomorrow to catch up with our market update. ~CL
April 26th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Monday folks. Natural gas futures prices displayed a strong showing to start out the week, surging upwards from Friday’s settlement of $2.73 to $2.79. Today’s price action marks a higher high week-over-week, indicating that the commodity is trending in the positive direction. Recall that last on last Thursday, the market jumped $0.10 on the bullish storage report from the EIA that indicated that 10 billion cubic feet less natural gas was injected into storage than market participants expected. As April draws to a close and demand for space heating decreases during the so-called the shoulder season for natural gas, prices may pullback or consolidate around the current level; however, traders may be to hesitant to enter into any new short positions now that prices have found considerable support for the past few weeks. ~EG
April 23rd. 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | As we all continue to remain in lock down the warm weather will be moving in lowering the short-term cash markets. Canada is projected to decrease exports to the US by 1.5 BCF per day amid the warming trends in the North East states followed by the mid-continent markets. As the market works through this shoulder season, we will see short term prices rather choppy until we are able to forecast with more certainty the upcoming summer air conditioning demand and the following winter projections. Natural Gas production continues to remain the main factor in driving natural gas prices; producers are limited on their capital drilling programs and continue to buy back shares in order to better control their longer term cashflow. Stay safe, stay home and enjoy the sunshine. (RS)
April 22nd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday everyone. The prompt month May NYMEX natural gas contract saw a big move today, settling US$0.057/MMBtu up from yesterday. The main catalyst for today’s move was the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report. While the market consensus estimate came in at 48 billion cubic feet (Bcf) with many leading analysts above that, the actual number came in at a low of 38 Bcf. As a reminder, a smaller than expected injection is bullish, meaning that prices will be expected to increase. As storage looks to balance the supply and demand that exists in the market, a smaller than expected injection signals that there is less natural gas available, either from higher demand or lower supply. ~CL
April 21st, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Halfway through the week. Happy Wednesday folks! Prices for natural gas futures have pulled back after appreciating steadily over the past two weeks. Price action suggests that traders are taking profits as we head into the release of the storage report on Thursday. We may see that the $2.75 level represents the upper band of the trading range for this lower-demand shoulder season found throughout the later half of April into the month of May. The colder weather that has descended upon most of the continental United States and Canada in the current week has begun to subside in the 15-day weather forecast. Additionally, we have observed that production levels have rebounded modestly by 0.8 bcf/day. This recovery comes after daily output has fallen roughly 1.8 bcf/day over the past eight gas days. With these fundamental mechanisms moving away from supportive conditions, we may see the prompt month contract for NYMEX gas futures pull back to the high 2.50s before the end of the month, however, Thursday’s EIA report will likely control the short term momentum of the contract. ~EG
April 20th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday! After the prompt month May NYMEX contract saw its eighth gain day over the past nine days yesterday, it finally settled down US$0.022/MMBtu, still above the US$2.70/MMBtu mark. Ongoing maintenance continues to affect production, with volumes hitting a monthly low of 87.9 billion cubic feet (Bcf)/day today. However, this is now being offset by weather warming, leading to demand revisions that sit nearly 10 Bcf lower. Prices now trade within a higher range, and will most likely stay above US$2.70/MMBtu but below US$2.75/MMBtu. We have recently been getting questions on how the prompt month NYMEX contract affects natural gas prices in Canada. The NYMEX contract is based at what is known as the pricing benchmark at Henry Hub down in Louisiana. Therefore, all activity in the lower 48 such as demand, supply, and storage injections and withdrawals will have a direct affect on pricing. Natural gas prices at other locations can all be thought of as a differential to the NYMEX contract, which you can think of as general movements in the NYMEX also occurring in the Canadian marketplace. Therefore, as you hear about rising NYMEX prices for the long term, you might want to consider a fixed-rate natural gas contract with RiteRate. We utilize our supplier relationships and proactive management to ensure that for your preferred term, you will be able to pay one steady rate, no matter what the NYMEX does. Visit our site for Home and Business plans, or give us a call at (416) 862-0322 to learn how we can help you! ~CL
April 19th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Welcome back to another market update from the RiteRate team. Prices for natural gas futures closed higher today in a continued show of strength. A combination of bullish factors have tightened the balance of supply and demand since the start of April. The latest 15-day weather forecasts have shifted colder, adding even more gas-weighted degree days to the near term outlook. This weather will support stronger domestic demand than previously forecast. Additionally, maintenance-driven declines in production have levels 2.5 bcf/day off a peak since April 1st. ~EG
April 16th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone, another one come and gone!To round off the week, prices traded relatively stable today within a four cent range, settling two cents up from yesterday. Since hitting a low on April 6th, the prompt month May NYMEX contract has climbed nearly 25 cents. The most recent climb yesterday was attributable to a bullish Energy Information Administration storage report coming in at 61 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as opposed to the market consensus average at 68 Bcf. Prices look to continue to climb as pandemic recovery continues alongside changes in production and demand. Make sure to take advantage of RiteRate’s fixed price natural gas contract. While market prices continue to climb, you will be able to pay one steady rate for your preferred term! Make sure to visit our Home or Business tab for more information, or give us a call Monday to Friday at (416) 862-03252. ~CL
April 14th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Hello folks and welcome back to RiteRate’s mid-week natural gas market update. Despite starting the day on a strong note, futures prices for natural gas settled close to unchanged, dropping just one tenth of a cent lower to $2.618. Prices have been finding support in recent days from forecasts of higher weather-driven demand from cooler than normal temperatures for the next two weeks. Declining production levels have added another bullish catalyst into the mix with volumes coming in over 1.5 bcf/day off their peak observed earlier this year. For tomorrow, traders look to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly natural gas storage inventory report to glean insight into the supply and demand balance for the previous week. [EG]
April 13th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everyone! After the price jump upwards early in the day yesterday, the May prompt month natural gas NYMEX futures contract traded relatively flat overnight. After hitting a low at US$2.529/MMBtu before 8AM today, the contract climbed slightly over ten cents to hit a high of US$2.638/MMBtu. Prices have since stabled within this range, and trades slightly above US$2.60/MMBtu at the time of writing. With production continuing to decline due to maintenance at production sites and weather coming in higher than expectations, it appears that prices could be making an early recovery to the high side. Fear not! As prices climb, you could lock in your natural gas rate for up to the next five years. Make sure to visit our website for more details under Home or Business, or give us a call anytime at (416) 862-0322. Make sure to tune back in tomorrow for more natural gas market updates. ~CL
April 12th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Monday everyone. Since the market opened at 6PM yesterday, the prompt month May NYMEX natural gas contract saw a ten cent spike upwards hitting a high of US$2.605/MMBtu. As more traders began their days however, pricing fell to a low of US$2.53/MMBtu for the day before ultimately settling at US$0.035/MMBtu higher than Friday. As we have mentioned in previous posts, declining production with colder than expected temperatures in April have led to prices shifting around quite a bit. Prices continue to trade at a relative low point, so now could be a great time to lock in your natural gas prices with a RiteRate fixed rate contract! For your preferred term, we are able to offer one steady commodity rate. Make sure to visit our Home or Business tabs to learn more and find the perfect plan for you. ~CL
April 9th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone. Natural gas futures traded in a modest range on Friday before settling nearly unchanged from Thursday’s settlement. Bearish selling momentum from recent weeks has slowed as production has gradually declined since the start of April. In conjunction with this, weather forecasts have added degree-day demand for the 2nd and 3rd weeks of April. From what we have observed, it seems that a broad base of support has been built in the $2.45-2.50 level. Supply and demand balances would need to significantly loosen in order for there to be any renewed interest in selling in this region. [EG]
April 8th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday everyone! Today marked a relatively quiet trading day with the prompt month May NYMEX contract trading within a six cent range, settling relatively unchanged from yesterday. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly natural gas storage report was released at 10:30AM today. Industry analysts had estimated a injection range of 11 to 30 billion cubic feet (Bcf), averaging at 22.8 Bcf. The actual number came in close at 20 Bcf leading to a slight upward movement in prices following, quite different from the oftentimes significant price shift in previous weeks. Early estimates are looking at an injection of around 60 Bcf next week factoring in the Easter long weekend and warmer weather. Make sure to tune-in tomorrow to see how natural gas wraps up the week! ~CL
April 6th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday! Yesterday’s downwards momentum resumed after a slight recovery overnight in today’s trading session. The May prompt month contract fell from a high of US$2.57/MMBtu to settle under US$2.50/MMBtu today. Temperatures have adjusted warmer since forecasts run prior to the Easter Holiday weekend, but cold below normal could emerge from April 13th to 20th. As we continue in the shoulder month remains relatively soft with steady production levels continuing. ~ CL
April 5th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for tuning in to another update from the team at RiteRate. Futures prices for natural gas sold off in today’s session, with the May contract falling down from $2.639 to $2.511, a 4.8% depreciation. Weather models over the weekend were materially warmer than last week’s runs, indicating that temperatures will remain at above normal temperatures for the second week of April. To the downside, traders look towards the $2.45 level as an area of interest as significant historical support is found at this level. [EG]
April 1st, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy end of the week everyone! The May prompt month contract traded between US$2.578 and US$2.663/MMBtu today, a similar range to the previous few trading sessions. The day started off rather low, but was pushed upwards following the weekly release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report. Industry analyst estimates came in at an injection (+) of 21 billion cubic feet (Bcf), with a range between 11 to 41 Bcf. The actual injection amount came in on the lower end at 14 Bcf. The market responded accordingly, rallying upwards to the high. Important to note: A revision of 4 Bcf was added to last week’s release, so we see an early end of withdrawal season balance of 1,750 Bcf in storage. The RiteRate team wishes everyone a safe and restful Easter long weekend! ~CL
March 31st, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas prices settled modestly lower Wednesday afternoon as weather forecasts call for milder temperatures during the latter half of April. All eyes are on tomorrow’s EIA storage report that is expected to show the first inventory build of the season, indicating the shift from net withdrawals to injections into storage. Market participants’ estimations range from +13 to +41 for tomorrow’s report, with a survey average of 23 bcf according to a poll from Reuters. The anticipated build is representative of the looser balance observed over the past week as warmer than normal temperatures throughout the country during the second half of March have limited the heating demand for natural gas. We expect that prices will move sideways to lower unless a bullish catalyst can tighten balances as we head into the shoulder season. [EG]
March 30th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everyone! Today marked the first day of trading with the May contract as the prompt. Following yesterday’s bullish momentum, prices traded between US$2.66 and US$2.69/MMBtu overnight. During normal trading hours today, prices traced back to late last week levels, just above US$2.60/MMBtu. Temperatures in the near-term remain relatively unchanged in most recent model runs, with further out days also showing milder adjustments. Demand has also weakened across the board, particularly in power burn demand as wind generation has increased. We are entering a period of relative price stability in the natural gas contract, so not much volatility is expected for the time being. Make sure to tune-in tomorrow to see what natural gas does next! ~CL
March 29th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Today was the last day of trading for the April 2021 natural gas futures contract. Prices appreciated 1.1% to settle at $2.586/MMBtu, with the rest of the forward curve following suit. With this contract rolling off the board, May becomes the focus for traders in the short-term. While we will see a quick period of cold throughout the country early this week, weather model forecasts are calling for milder temperatures to return in the 6 to 15 day time frame. While this weather-driven demand weakness will weigh on prices through the month of April, it is counterbalanced by the year over year demand growth in LNG exports, which have been holding steady at 11 bcf/day or more. Last week, the market found a floor around the $2.50 level after a stronger than anticipated storage report indicated tighter balances. It remains to be seen whether this area of historical report will be tested again, or if prices will bottom out and move higher as we proceed into the later part of spring. [EG]
March 26th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday, the last one of March already here! After bullish moment swept up the market following yesterday’s EIA storage report, prices continued to trade between US$2.54 and US$2.58/MMBtu. As per usual, trading will close at 5PM ET today and re-open at 6PM ET Sunday, March 28th. Next Monday, March 29th will mark the last day of trading for the April natural gas contract, so there is still room for price movement as traders look to close out their existing positions. For the time being and the month of April, natural gas prices are expected to stay rather soft, but higher prices are expected to return as summer begins. Potential decreases in natural gas production paired with COVID-19 recovery could lead to an under supply in the market, a main catalyst for increased bullish momentum. Capitalize on the low prices now by signing a fixed-rate contract with RiteRate! We will ensure that you pay one steady rate throughout the entire duration of a term of your choice so you never have to think about rising markets. Make sure to visit our website or give us a call at (416) 862-0322 to learn more. ~CL
March 25th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for tuning in to another market update post from the RiteRate team. If you’ve been checking out our posts regularly, you’ll know that on Thursdays at 10:30am EST, the Energy Information Administration releases its storage inventory report. This report details the amount of gas that has been pulled out of or injected into storage for the previous week. Analysts’ expectations for this week’s EIA storage number ranged from a withdrawal of 10 bcf (billion cubic feet) to a withdrawal of 30 bcf for the week ending March 19th, 2021. Market prices jumped upon the release of the number, as 36 bcf of natural gas was reported to have been withdrawn, indicating that supply and demand balances were tighter than what was projected from production and consumption estimates. Feel free to reach out to us if you’d like to learn more about how RiteRate utilizes storage in southwestern Ontario to deliver affordable and competitively priced natural gas to its residential and commercial customers throughout the province. For more information on natural gas storage, check out this Wikipedia article for a deeper dive into the specific details. [EG]
March 24th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Wednesday everyone! Today saw another relatively steady trading day in the April NYMEX contract. Prices were bounded by US$2.503 and US$2.545/MMBtu, and settled at US$2.518/MMBtu, one cent up from yesterday. At the time of writing, the contract continues to trade slightly under US$2.52/MMBtu. Taking a look at fundamental factors, cold has lessened for the end of March, but demand has been added slightly for the first few days of April. Supply is holding relatively stable and residential/commercial demand continues to fall off as the weather warms, the normal as we transition into April. Tomorrow will mark the weekly release of the Energy Administration Information (EIA) storage report. An early estimate of a 21 billion cubic feet withdrawal has been projected by some analysts. This week’s release will probably be the last withdrawal week for now, as we turn to storage injections soon. Make sure to tune back-in tomorrow to read about the actual storage report release and to stay up to date with the world of natural gas. ~CL
March 23rd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone. Let’s take a look at price action in the April 2021 natural gas contract. The prompt month contract for natural gas finished 2.9% lower after settling just above the $2.50 US/MM level, down from $2.582 yesterday. Prices continue to be pinned down by bearish weather forecasts indicating warmer-than-normal temperatures into the first week of April; however, we are seeing a strong base of support formed around the $2.50 region.
March 22nd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Monday everyone! Another exciting day in the natural gas market to kick-off the week. The April prompt month NYMEX natural gas contract started off the normal trading day at a low of US$2.478/MMBtu before rallying and settling at US$2.582/MMBtu, US$0.047/MMBtu higher than last Friday’s settle. Overall, not much has changed. The most recent Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensemble model run did see a milder adjustment for the next week, with the previously estimated cold spike pushed to March 31st to April 1st. Residential and commercial demand is on the decline as transition from winter to spring, so prices are expected to trade near to below levels seen today. The natural gas market is always changing and evolving so make sure to tune back in tomorrow to get the latest with RiteRate! ~CL
March 19th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | After closing in the red for many consecutive sessions over the past two weeks, natural gas prices finished $0.054 higher on Friday despite a weak outlook for weather-driven demand. Prices have consolidated around the $2.45 to $2.55 region as small additions to weather demand in the 14-day forecast prompted traders to cover short positions heading into the weekend. Should April continue to see above normal temperatures for this time of year, prices may test support levels in the low $2.40s if there are no additional bullish fundamentals besides recovering industrial demand and LNG export strength to offset weather-driven demand weakness. [EG]
March 17th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Wednesday and St. Patrick’s to those celebrating! As we look to round out the last month of the Winter strip, not much activity is seen these days. As you may recall from our updates the previous week, the April NYMEX prompt month natural gas contract has been on the decline for the past few days but have since hit a bottom and stabilized. A range of US$2.48 to US$2.55/MMBtu was seen today, relatively unchanged from where prices sat at yesterday. Weather models continue to show a cold spike tomorrow and Friday, followed by another shot the 28th to 29th. Supply and demand figures remain similar to previous day levels as well. Some shifts may be expected tomorrow as the U.S. Energy Information Administration looks to release their weekly storage report for the weak ending March 12th, 2021. With the past two weeks actuals coming significantly lower than the estimated withdrawal amount, this week we are seeing quite a smaller withdrawal estimate at only 12 billion cubic feet (Bcf) from some analysts. This would be 3 Bcf less than what was recorded last year, and 43 Bcf below the five-year average. Make sure to tune back-in tomorrow to see if we are surprised three weeks in a row! ~CL
March 16th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday! Since hitting a bottom yesterday, the April prompt month contract made a slight rebound during today’s trading session, settling at US$2.562/MMBtu. The most recent weather run saw minimal change in the upcoming days but did see a shift of potential colder weather to later on in the month. Supply and demand balances are slightly tighter, but relatively unchanged as well. The April NYMEX natural gas contract will continue to trade as the prompt month contract up until March 29th, 2021, so we will expect to see some increased fluctuations as financial traders enter and exit the market. As we continue to trade at these relatively low prices, consider signing a fixed-rate contract with RiteRate. For your preferred term, pay one steady rate for your natural gas consumption, without having to worry about what markets are doing. Give us a call at 1-877-866-8056 or reach us through our Contact Us! ~CL
March 15th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone. Welcome back to another market update from the RiteRate team. Taking a look at price action today, natural gas continued its decline after last week’s selloff. The prompt month contract fell by about 4% after breaking through support levels found in the $2.55-$2.60 region. Since Friday, day over day weather forecasts have shifted warmer for the next 14 days, indicating weaker demand for natural gas than is typically observed for this time of year. Weaker demand results in smaller withdrawals from storage and stout inventory levels. Higher storage inventory levels weigh on prices as there is more` supply to draw from in future months. If you are considering a fixed-rate contract through RiteRate, you may be wondering what to make of all this. We have good news for you! Lower prices allow customers to sign up at even more affordable rates as it becomes cheaper to buy natural gas supply for a multi-year period. If you have any questions or would like to learn more, don’t hesitate to give us a call. We would be happy to chat with you. [EG]
March 12th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone, yet another week done in 2021! The April prompt month natural gas contract started the day off today relatively unchanged from yesterday, trading within the US$2.65 to US$2.67/MMBtu range. After meeting resistance at US$2.65/MMBtu and bouncing off, prices hit a steady decline slightly before 1PM, falling slightly below US$2.60/MMBtu before recovering slightly. The April contract ultimately settled at US$2.60/MMBtu, US$0.068/MMBtu down from yesterday. The price decline is attributable to weather model run revisions. The previously forecasted cold spikes around the 19th and 20th, as well as the end of March have weakened, decreasing the projected heating and cooling degree day demand. With all of these changes in mind and an environment where prices are currently relatively low and stable, consider taking advantage of Canadian RiteRate’s fixed rate natural gas contract! For your preferred term, you will be able to pay one steady rate, locked-in at the beginning. Make sure to Contact Us through our website or give us a call at 1-877-866-8056. Have a great weekend ~CL
March 11th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday everyone! Today marked yet another fairly bumpy day in natural gas. The April prompt month natural gas contract started the trading today at a low in the US$2.66/MMBtu levels and continued to fluctuate with two cents above that until the 10:30AM Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report. Recall that last week, while the industry average came in at a withdrawal (-) 138 billion cubic feet (Bcf), the actual report came in at -98 Bcf. This week, the early industry analyst survey saw an average of -67 Bcf, with a range from -104 Bcf to -39 Bcf. As a quick reminder, during the winter strip of natural gas trading, storage withdrawals are typically recorded to meet the increase in demand. The larger the withdrawal, the more bullish on prices, (that is to say “expect higher prices moving forwards”), and vice versa. The actual report for the week came in at -52 Bcf. Given that this was more bearish (“expect lower prices moving forwards”), market prices did react and sell-off, but quickly recovered to hit a high of just under US$2.70/MMBtu. Prices were not sustained at those levels however, and the contract settled at 2:30PM at US$2.668/MMBtu. Only a couple of weeks are left for the storage withdrawal season as April given normal weather will turn to injections. Speaking of weather, March is still looking relatively uneventful. Some colder days look to be expected around the 15th and 19th to 20th time frames, but otherwise only small revisions have been seen in the past few model runs. As we know it though, everything is constantly changing, so make sure to tune back in tomorrow for RiteRate’s Natural Gas Market Update to see how we round up the week! ~CL
March 10th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone! Welcome back to RiteRate’s Wednesday market update. Taking a look at price action within the natural gas market today, we saw green on our screens with contracts settling up about 1% near the highs of the day. With the peak of heating demand in the rear-view mirror, there has been downward momentum in the market for the past few sessions, but traders look toward a period of below-normal temperatures natural during mid-March that will drive consumption up moderately. Additionally, the market is positioning itself in advance of tomorrow’s EIA storage report where analysts expect a withdrawal in the range of 60-80 bcf for the week ending March 5th, 2021. Recall that last week, the EIA print was a massive bearish miss: a 98 bcf withdrawal was report when the market had expectations for a pull of 130-150 bcf. Might we see a revision in last week’s data? If recent history has shown us, anything is possible! Tune in to our update tomorrow afternoon for more coverage on what is moving the market. [EG]
March 9th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everyone! The April prompt month natural gas contract did some further jumping around today. After hitting a low of US$2.624/MMBtu early in the morning, prices climbed successively throughout the day. Shortly before the close, the contract jumped US$0.04/MMBtu to US$2.69/MMBtu before settling ultimately at US$2.662/MMBtu. All-in-all, weather models continue to shift around, with additional degree days added in the most recent weather runs. Production is also back down to March 3rd levels, but overall demand has also weakened with the welcoming of warmer temperatures. ~CL
March 8th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Welcome back to another installment of RiteRate’s natural gas market updates. The downtrend in natural gas prices has continued as we move into the shoulder season between winter and summer, a period of easing heating demand. At the current moment, there has not been a great amount of changes in the fundamental factors affecting the supply and demand balance. Production and export levels have remained steady, but as heating demand has lessened week over week, the gradual downward momentum has driven prices lower. Analysts note that stronger withdrawals from storage will be needed going forward to support prices, however, balmy conditions across the majority of the United States and Canada will make that scenario less likely. We should keep in mind, however, that winter cannot be counted out, as evidenced by the massive influx of cold temperatures mid-February which manifested after a mild December and January. [EG]
March 5th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone! Natural gas prices continued its downward trend today with the April prompt month NYMEX natural gas contract settling US$0.045/MMBtu lower than yesterday. Winter Storm Uri continues to bring back in production output and the most recent weather model run showed a pretty large revision: warmer weather expected until March 15th, before a cold swell up to the 18th, and a return to warmth again. The downward pricing pressure can also be thought of as an extension to the bearish news released in yesterday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) lower-48 storage report. While the industry consensus estimate painted a withdrawal of 138 billion cubic feet (Bcf), the actual withdrawal only hit 98 Bcf. This number will reduce the size of the storage deficit from previously projected low numbers, but there still is a couple of weeks until we transition into the summer spread of natural gas (April to October). Hope everyone has a safe, warm, and relaxing weekend, see you next week! ~CL
March 3rd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy middle of the week everyone! The April NYMEX contract settled US$0.023/MMBtu lower today after hitting a relative high of US$2.887/MMBtu. The supply and demand balance has loosened since yesterday in the lower-48, with production increasing and demand decreasing primarily in the Residential and Commercial usage figures. Weather model revisions have also cut back on both the number of heating degree and cooling degree days in the upcoming days. For the time being, the April contract continues to trade above the US$2.80/MMBtu range, far off from the low point under US$2.70/MMBtu last Friday, February 26th, 2021. ~CL
March 1st, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Monday yet again everyone, astonishing to see that it’s already March today! The April contract continues to trade as the prompt month NYMEX contract, and bumped around quite a bit today. The contract hit a low price of US$2.72/MMBtu early on in the trading session before hitting US$2.78/MMBtu right before the close. April ultimately settled at US$2.777/MMBtu, nearly identical to last Friday’s settle. While prices may remain stable for the time being, you never know what may happen next! A bit of cold weather is still a possibility coming up, which could lead to some price spikes. In the meantime, remove the uncertainty from your personal natural gas plans by considering a fixed-rate natural gas contract with Canadian RiteRate. For your term of choice, we are able to lock in your rate from start to finish. Give us a call at 1-877-866-8056 or email us at [email protected] to learn more! ~CL
February 25th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday everyone! A couple of key points for today, strange that we’re already at the last Thursday of February. Today marked the first day of the April NYMEX Natural Gas futures contract as the prompt month contract. Prices had rallied overnight from yesterday’s close, but began a downward trend at around 8AM as North American markets resumed daily activity. As per usual, today also marked the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report. Recall that there is a one week lag in the report, so today’s number covers the actions of the week ending February 19th (which was quite the week, i.e., Texas freeze-offs, super cold weather among the likes). Industry analyst estimates came in at an average withdrawal of 337 billion cubic feet (Bcf), with a range spanning from -287 to -371 Bcf (“-” implies a withdrawal). The actual report released at 10:30AM however, was slightly bullish at only -338 Bcf. The news was ultimately unable to reverse the downward pressure, with the April contract settling at US$2.777/MMBtu, down $0.018 from yesterday. ~CL
February 24th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon folks. Welcome back to our mid-week market update. Today marked one of the least eventful settlement days we’ve seen in recent months as the March 2021 contract rolled off the board, settling down $0.025 to $2.854 at the end of the day’s trading session. Normally volatility is the name of the game on contract expiration day, however, prices for the prompt month traded within a $0.064 range. The downward momentum of this week has continued as weather models continue to show warmer day over day shifts in their 14-day forecasts. Tomorrow traders will look to the Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage report for the week ending February 19th, 2021. This report will shed some insight into the supply and demand balance of natural gas through the severe winter storm that disrupted energy markets throughout the mid-continental United States. Expectations for the number range from a withdrawal of 291 to 365 bcf. If you’re curious to find out the result, be sure to check back here tomorrow afternoon for our coverage, or head to the EIA’s website at 10:30am EST to check the number directly. [EG]
February 23rd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everyone! The March prompt month NYMEX natural gas futures contract continued to fall in prices today as we embrace warmer weather! Additionally, production continues to return and demand is slightly down, easing on the tight balances seen a week ago. Tomorrow will be the last day of trading for the March contract, before we roll into April as the prompt month. Recall that for the past couple of months, we saw price rallies into the final settlement. The March contract in contrast to February however, has been settling lower each day for the past couple of days. Make sure you tune back in tomorrow to see how trader sentiment plays out! ~CL
February 22nd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon everyone. Hope you all have been safe and warm indoors on cold wintery days like today. Taking a look at price action in the natural gas market today, we saw the March 2021 contract continuing its decline from the highs from last week as temperatures in the 14-day weather forecasts from over the weekend shifter warmer than normal. Adding to the loosening supply and demand balance is the recovery of production in the Permian basin from last week’s unprecedented winter storm that left power and gas markets in disarray. By the end of the session, March settled down $0.116 at $2.953, however, traders look towards the Energy Information Administration’s storage report on Thursday wherein the record for the largest ever recorded pull from national storage inventories could be in the works. We will be sure to provide coverage as the week progresses. [EG]
February 19th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone! Yesterday’s downward pressure on prices continued today. After falling under US$3.00/MMBtu yesterday evening, prices traded within a US$0.10 range throughout the day, hitting a high of US$3.14/MMBtu. Weather has shifted slightly colder in the forecast looking out, but nothing out of the ordinary is currently expected for the month of March. Recovery from the freeze-offs that occurred in earlier this week in the U.S. is ongoing, and is expected to be somewhat of a lengthy process. The NYMEX March prompt month contract’s last day of trading is next Wednesday, February 24th, 2021 so we will most likely see some increased volatility. Make sure to tune back-into Canadian RiteRate’s daily market updates next week as well! ~CL
February 18th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon to all of our readers out there. Welcome back to another natural gas market update. Today’s price action seemed to reflect the inverse of yesterday’s session, as prices started higher in the overnight session before crashing down $0.20 off the highs off the morning heading into the 10:30AM release of the Energy Information Administration’s weekly storage inventory report. Expectations for last week’s withdrawal from storage ranged between 250-260 bcf, however, the report came in well below these levels at 237 billion cubic feet. With inventories being larger than the market expected, the price for the March 2021 futures contract settled down $0.137 from yesterday’s close.
February 17th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon folks and welcome back to another market update from the RiteRate team. Natural gas futures prices for the prompt month (March 2021) started the day lower than yesterday’s close but had surged upwards as much as $0.25/MMBtu off the low of the day before closing up $0.09 at $3.219. No shortage of volatility in this market! Driving the price action is the unprecedented amount of weather-related demand throughout the mid-continental United States and associated production losses in oil and gas producing states such as Texas. We have seen estimates of as much as 20 billion cubic feet of natural gas production being taken offline due to freeze-offs, a phenomenon that is discussed more in depth in this RBN energy blogpost. It remains to be seen how long this production will remain offline, but it certainly have bullish implications for storage inventories as we proceed into the summer and fall.For more coverage of this developing situation, be sure to check out our post tomorrow afternoon as we provide updates on these extraordinary circumstances. [EG]
February 16th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everyone! Hope the Family Day long weekend was restful. The snow this morning was quite a surprise to wake up to. Good news though, is that the cold appears to finally be coming to an end! For those excited for Spring, it should be getting significantly warmer by the end of the week. In the meantime however, natural gas prices are still trading and hitting new highs. The market climbed over US$0.14 this morning to the US$3.21 level for the March prompt month contract, before coming down slightly. Today ultimately settled US$0.217 than Friday (remembering that yesterday was a holiday) at US$3.129/MMBtu. A lot of the upward pressure in the futures contract pricing can be attributable to high cash prices. As the weather becomes severely cold, the demand for next day gas increases, driving up the price as supply dwindles. The cash price for the long weekend on Friday settled at US$5.6552/MMBtu at the Dawn hub, with even higher prices elsewhere throughout the U.S. ~CL
February 11th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday Jr. everyone! Today was another busy day in the market. After climbing into the 2:30PM close, the prompt month March contract continued to climb overnight and into this morning. The contract ultimately peaked at US$3.05/MMBtu before downward pressure was applied. Today also marked another U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report release, and this only served to drive prices lower. The analyst consensus estimate sat at an average of -181 Bcf (the negative indicates a withdrawal from storage!), with multiple players sitting slightly above that. The actual report came in at -171 Bcf though, a whole 10 Bcf lower, bringing about extremely bearish sentiment. Settlement ended up at US$2.868/MMBtu today, over four cents down from yesterday, even though the start of the day painted a very different picture. ~CL
February 10th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | The wild, volatile price action seen in the natural gas futures market continued today with March (NGH2021) trading within a 24 cent range. Prices traded as low as $2.74 during the early morning hours before rocketing upwards to settle at $2.911 in the afternoon. The upward momentum has continued after the settlement time with prices trading in the mid $2.90s, fueled by strong cash prices observed throughout the U.S. and Canada as colder than normal temperatures ramp up heating demand. The peak of the polar vortex cold will be settling in early next week, bringing with it not only sustained natural gas demand, but also the potential for freeze-offs in production. Both of these may bring further upside to prices in the near term before natural gas demand eases into the latter part of March and into April. Tomorrow, traders look to the Energy Intelligence Agency’s weekly natural gas report, in which expectations are for a 181 bcf withdrawal. Meet us back here then for another natural gas market update from the RiteRate team. [EG]
February 9th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everyone! The March prompt month natural gas contract continued to trend downwards today. Prices traded down to US$2.788 a couple of times today, before climbing up and settling at 2:30PM at US$2.835. At the time of writing, prices have backed off a bit yet again, sitting at around US$2.80. It appears that the price decline is attributable to revisions in the weather forecasts hinting at less intense cold weather. In other news, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their monthly Short Term Energy Outlook today (STEO). To note, they’re forecasting increasing prices and decreasing production moving forwards, but there’s still a lot of moving parts that could bring some significant changes. Make sure to tune in tomorrow as well to read about what’s going on in natural gas! ~CL
February 8th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Welcome back folks! We’ve got another market update from the RiteRate team to share with you today. Natural gas futures prices for the March contract reached just short of the $3.00/MMBtu level before meeting resistance. The price ultimately settled up just $0.019 from Friday’s close at $2.882, indicating that bullish momentum to the upside has been slowed amid more moderate weather forecasts toward the end of February. It appears that the substantial amount of cold weather driven natural gas demand has been priced in to the market, and futures traders are now focusing on what comes next. In the near future however, we will see some of the coldest national temperatures on record, so be sure to layer up to shield yourself from the coming frigid arctic air. [EG]
February 5th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone! Today’s trading session saw another number of up and downs. Yesterday’s price climb continued further up overnight and into this morning. Prices rose to the US$3.06 levels a couple of times, but ultimately faced resistance. Starting around 9:30AM, the March prompt month contract began coming down, settling at US$2.863 for the day. At the time of writing, prices have made a slight recovery, hovering just under the US$2.88 level. Looking back at the last two weeks, a similar pattern was seen where Friday trading saw a decline in prices. With the market being closed on Saturday, the Sunday 6PM open saw a huge gap upwards. It’s still up in the air whether we’ll see that again this coming Sunday, but the action today seems like a pretty promising start to another repeat. Have a great weekend everyone, and make sure to tune in Monday to see if we can similar courses of action three weeks in a row! ~CL
February 4th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon folks. Today’s trading session was a rollercoaster ride from start to finish. Prices for the March contract came under pressure overnight, hitting lows under $2.75 before finding support from the 6am weather forecast calling for additional heating demand in the 14 day forecast. The EIA released their weekly storage inventory report dead on expectations of a 192 billion cubic feet withdrawal from storage facilities. Price action suggested that the market was fearing a print in the mid to low 180s. Following the report, each successive weather model run added to forecasts for cold temperatures throughout the United States and Canada for the middle of February. The ECMWF ensemble added a whopping 30 gas weighted degree days to the forecast, a magnitude that is rarely seen between one run to the next. That was enough to send prices soaring into the close of the day, with the March contract settling up +$0.146 at $2.935. What remains to be seen is to what extent this cold weather sticks around into the end of February and beginning of March, and how much these freezing temperatures could interfere with natural gas production. [EG]
February 3rd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | The price of the March prompt month natural gas contract continued to fall today even as weather models continued to forecast cold weather. The overall number of GWDDs has gone up, although the intensity of cold has made a shift closer to the end of next week as opposed to the beginning. It appears that there is some irrationality in the market, although the exact reasons why are still unknown. Prices will most like continue to trade at the US$2.70/MMBtu level, quite the ways off from the low of US$2.26/MMBtu seen at the end of December. Tomorrow marks another U.S. EIA storage report day. Last Thursday we saw a pretty steep drop after the release that the actual withdrawal was less than expected (reminder that this is bearish, also know as weak for prices because there’s now additional supply). Prices did rebound throughout the day though. An early outlook last Friday sits at a market consensus average withdrawal of 192.50 Bcf. Make sure to tune back in to our daily market updates to find out what the actual number is tomorrow and what impacts it has on natural gas pricing. ~CL
February 2nd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon folks! Welcome back to another natural gas market update brought to you by the RiteRate team. After weather models shifted significantly colder, adding to demand additions from over the weekend, the market responded by rallying the prompt month contract to the $3.00/MMBtu level. Despite the bullish developments in the 15-day forecast, sellers stepped in at this level and capitalized on the opportunity to enter into new shorts, bringing the settlement price just under yesterday’s close when all was said and done. It is worth mentioning that market participants have seen cold weather forecasts fail to materialize many times this winter, but we expect that prices will find support in the coming weeks as frigid temperatures across the midwestern and northeastern states draw down storage inventory levels at rates that far exceeds the 5 year average. Traders will look for confirmation of weather forecasts in successive runs before entering into new positions in the market. [EG]
February 1st, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Welcome to the second month of 2021 already, how time flies! The March contract made huge moves today, largely due to colder revisions in weather forecasts that started over the weekend. Yesterday’s market open at 6PM saw the second gap up in a row following a similar move last week. A gap refers to a large jump up or down when the market opens in comparison to the previous session’s closing price. Gaps are typically seen following the weekend down time or after holidays with low trading activity. Colder weather continues to be projected in the near future. Today’s midday weather Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) run added 50 gas-weighted degree days (GWDD) in a 12-hour period, the largest such change recalled in an ensemble run! A cold first half of February is now expected, but we’ll have to wait and see how reality plays out. The prompt month contract ultimately settled at US$2.85 today, and we could see a move to US$2.90 if another colder revision is made. ~CL
January 29th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures finished in the red today after warmer weather changes in the 15 day forecast manifested overnight, dropping the price of the March contract $0.10 to $2.564. This pattern feels all too familiar to natural gas traders as there has been a trend this winter for cold weather forecasts to shift warmer as the 11-15 day time period moves to the 6-10 day. Will we see a gap downwards in pricing when markets open on Sunday at 6pm EST, or will models continue to display below-normal temperatures as model begin to project into mid-February? Our view is that the selling may be overdone given the minimal changes to GWDD forecasts which indicate levels of above-normal demand. [EG]
January 28th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday everyone! Today marked the rollover of the prompt month contract to March. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly storage report was released at 10:30AM today. While the industry consensus estimate was a withdrawal of around 138 billion cubic feet (Bcf), the actual number came in 10Bcf higher at a withdrawal of 128Bcf. In previous weeks we had noted the minimal effect of the storage report as the number often serves to confirm weather related impacts. Today the release led to a $0.06 sell-off before prices recovered, as the number was still somewhat alignment with the warmer temperatures last week. The March contract ultimately settled US$0.038 down from yesterday, but is still trading at the US$2.70 level. Although we see some pretty big up and down movements periodically, natural gas prices are still trending upwards. Take advantage of the relatively low prices by locking in a fixed-rate natural gas contract with RiteRate! We’re here to make sure you have a natural gas plan that works best for your household or business. Make sure to reach out to us through our site or give us a call at 1(877) 866-8056. ~CL
January 27th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Another exciting day for natural gas markets as the February contract rallied into the close to settle at $2.760. Strength in the 2021 contracts has been observed since weather forecasts have shifted colder, adding projections for demand every day since last Friday. Not only does this affect the near month contract, it also supports later-dated contracts as projections for storage inventory levels are shifted lower due to larger withdrawals from storage facilities across the nation. For tomorrow, traders look forward to the EIA storage inventory reports for clarity into how much natural gas was withdrawn for the previous week. The governmental agency is expected to release a number in the mid 130s, and traders will look to see how their models fared against the official release. A number greater or less than expectations will have implications for price action as it is reflective the supply and demand balance of the gas market as a whole. Stayed tuned for our update tomorrow for the results. [EG]
January 26th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday everybody! Natural prices continued to climb today, peaking at around US$2.68/MMBtu before backing off slightly into the settle. Colder changes in the weather models continue to fuel bullish sentiment for the time being. Additionally, the February prompt month contract expires tomorrow, another factor leading to pretty high volatility. If the trend continues, we saw rallies into expiration for the December and January contract, so prices could potentially hit a high in the US$2.70/MMBtu to US$2.75.MMBtu range. As prices look to make a comeback, keep your own natural gas rates low by entering a Fixed-Rate contract with us! With no hidden costs and no price hikes, you’ll be able to hold one steady rate for the duration of your term while the market bumps up and down. Give us a call or send an email through our Contact Us link for further inquiries. ~CL
January 25th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Hello and welcome back to RiteRate’s Natural Gas Market Update for Monday January 25th. During today’s trading session, the price for the front month natural gas futures contract, February NGG2021, settled 7% higher on the day after a weekend gap upwards. This represents a significant momentum shift attributable to colder temperatures forecasted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model in the 14 day forecast. As shown in the image below, there is quite the divergence between the two models, with the ECMWF adding many more gas-weighted degree days, a measurement for natural gas demand, than the Global Forecasting System model. It will be interesting to see if the colder European model’s forecast holds or if the models converge in the coming runs. One thing we can say for sure is that as we head into the expiration of the February contract on Wednesday, we will likely see volatile price action. [EG]
January 22nd, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone! The February prompt month natural gas contract continued to traded under US$2.50/MMBtu today as weather continues to ride a warmer trend. Temperature affects aside, given the U.S. holiday on Monday, the EIA storage report was released today. While the analyst estimate average came in at a withdrawal volume for the week ending January 15th of 180Bcf, the actual report came in at a withdrawal of 187Bcf, slightly bullish. A slight price spike was seen after the 10:30AM release, but as per previous week’s, storage has become more of a confirmation factor as opposed to a changing factor. Any price movements from the new information is short-lived, with no ongoing momentum. The February contract’s last day of trading is next Wednesday, so we’ll probably see increased volatility the next three trading days as we continue to wait for the arrival of winter. ~CL
January 21st, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Futures contracts for natural gas settled several cents lower from yesterday’s close, though up from the lows of the day as the European weather model forecasted a halt to the warming momentum observed over the last week. Traders look towards the EIA storage inventory report set to be released tomorrow at 10:30am EST to provide insight into the supply and demand balance of the commodity over the past week. [EG]
January 20th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | The February prompt month contract continued to fall today, hitting a low of US$2.454/MMBtu before ultimately bouncing back to settle at US$2.539/MMBtu. Weather continues to lean towards warmth, especially out into the longer term, although the possibility of cold isn’t completely impossible. The afternoon ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) turned out to show much colder changes, leading to the 6 cent climb into the settle. ~CL
January 19th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | The February prompt month contract continued to sell-off today, settling 19 cents lower than Friday’s close. (Reminder that while trading activity was present, low volumes were transacted due to the U.S. holiday). Warmer weather forecasts continue to put downward pressure on prices as the reality of a cold winter slip further and further away with each additional weather forecast run. There is still potential for some colder weather up in the northeast as concerns over the polar vortex continue, but a lot is still up in the air. Tomorrow will be another interesting day in the natural gas markets, given Joe Biden’s presidential inauguration. Biden has quite a focus on climate reform, which could impact fossil fuel industries significantly. Make sure to tune-in tomorrow to see how things turn out, see you then! ~CL
January 18th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Last week, natural gas futures closed on a higher note as the market responded to mid-session weather model runs calling for elevated demand levels in key demand areas towards the end of January. You may have seen reports recently regarding the chance for a polar vortex to take hold, potentially sending colder arctic air south towards the United States and Canada. Weather model forecasts from over the weekend seem to indicate that the odds of this polar blast providing a sustained cold spike are diminishing, so rest assured that we may not need to bundle up well into February if warmer temperatures return. [EG]
January 15th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday, we’re officially halfway into the first month of 2021! Weather continues to drive natural gas prices, and a colder revision in the overnight model created lasting momentum into today’s trading. The February prompt month contract hit US$2.80/MMBtu briefly before coming back down. Although the cold has yet to turn up as predicted earlier this month, forecasts are now showing at least a cold early February. With this in mind, prices are said to perhaps hit US$2.90/MMBtu by early next week. Next Monday marks a holiday in the States so trading will be down, but make sure to tune-in still for other news and updates. As prices look to be on the rise, make sure to secure what you’re paying for you’re household and businesses! Ask us about our Fixed Rate and Monthly Variable natural gas pricing plans. ~CL
January 13th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | As quick as colder weather forecasts come, they also went and left. Following the major rally in yesterday’s trading session with highs of US$2.90/MMBtu, warmer side revisions today saw settlement back at US$2.75/MMBtu levels. Where prices go next is still a mystery, especially since tomorrow is another EIA storage report day. In the last week, after the 10:30AM release, we saw some (contradictory) movement from the slightly bearish number, but no long lasting momentum. Make sure to tune-in tomorrow to see whether or not we have a repeat! ~CL
January 11th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Today marked a wild start to the week. Following last Friday’s settlement at $2.70, warmer weather created ongoing downward momentum over the weekend that lasted until slightly after noon today. The afternoon European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather run was the main catalyst in a sudden price rally. The February prompt month contract ended up settling $0.05 higher as a result and continued to climb, hitting $2.80 before settling around $2.79 at the time of writing. From here, we continue to watch weather as the main driving factor. As mentioned last week, colder days are approaching nearing the end of the week. The next couple of days however could see anything from continued higher prices to a reversal several cents lower depending on what the weather runs show. ~CL
January 8th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday, what a week it has been! Hope everyone had an excellent start to the new year. Overnight selling momentum carried into the morning due to a weather forecast revision, but firm cash prices during the day helped to reverse the downward trend. As a quick reminder, the cash price refers to the price of natural gas in the day market, as opposed to entering a forward-based contract in the past for the current month. In theory, the futures price should be equivalent to the cash price plus some factor that accounts for the cost of carry. As a quick example, cash prices rose today, so the futures price, which is equivalent to the cash price plus the cost of storage/borrowing money/ etc., rose as well. So well weather tends to be the focus in the winter months, there are still other factors at play! Weather as mentioned previously this week, is projecting colder days later on, but the change is expected to be short-lived. At this point, only time will tell, so make sure to continue tuning-in! ~CL
January 7th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas prices settled close to unchanged from the previous day after an EIA storage report revealed an inventory withdrawal in-line with market expectations. We note that any shift away from colder weather model runs has the potential to drag prices down lower, therefore bulls will need to see temperatures at near or below normal averages for any price rally to be sustained. [EG]
January 6th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | What a day it has been today. Weather continues to be the leading factor affecting prices. Overnight, weather models had turned to the warmer side, leading to an $0.08 sell-off from yesterday’s settlement of $2.70. Starting at 8AM though, markets saw a reversal up until noon, accounting for an adjustment back to the cold, particularly in the 11 to 15 day period. The prompt month February contract fell again in the afternoon, before making a slight recovery and settling approximately $0.015 higher than yesterday. Tomorrow will mark the first storage report of the year, so make sure to tune-in for the official number and subsequent effects. Cheers! ~CL
January 5th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas priced climbed significantly Tuesday on weather forecasts confirming a shift to colder temperatures in the 14 day forecast. With momentum shifting to the upside, prices are testing areas of technical resistance near December highs in the high $2.70s. Natural gas bulls will need weather and teleconnections to cooperate and hold this pattern for prices to move higher, as temperatures near the 10 year average would be supportive to prices with the supply and demand balance tighter year over year. [EG]
January 4th, 2021 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy New Year everyone, had to triple check to make sure I got the year right up top today! It’s been a while since a blog post, hopefully all of our readers had a safe and restful winter holiday. Since our last post, lots has happened. For one, the prompt month contract has now transitioned to February. The January contract climbed on the last day of trading last Tuesday, December 29th, 2020, closing at US$2.467/MMBtu. The February contract is currently trading at US$2.603/MMBtu at the time of writing. Colder weather had driven a price rally early in the morning, but later came down nine cents due to sellers both in natural gas and global markets applying downwards pressure. On the horizon in terms of weather, there still is the possibility for cold, which could lead to a shift in prices to the higher side. The February contract last trading day is January 27th, 2021, so until then, there’s still ample room for changes. Make sure to stay tuned on the daily for all the latest updates! ~CL
December 23rd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Wednesday everyone! Today marked a turn around in the market. Given the January prompt month contract expires next Tuesday, we’ve been paying extra attention to changes, and today was no exception. After hitting a new relative high at $2.80 yesterday, the contract held steady overnight, but dropped as volume picked up at 8:30AM. The early EIA storage report this week also added to the downward pressure. Industry experts this week held estimates between a 142Bcf to 179Bcf withdrawal, with an average sitting at a 158Bcf withdrawal. The actual report came out at 12PM, signalling a withdrawal of solely 152Bcf. By the market settle today at 2:30PM, prices had hit $2.565, but have returned and stabilized at the time of writing slightly above $2.60. Quick reminder that natural gas markets will close early at 1:45PM tomorrow, and remain closed until the usual Sunday night open at 6PM EST. Wishing every one a joyful holiday season ~CL
December 22nd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Good afternoon folks! Welcome back for another market update from the RiteRate team. Looking at price action throughout the day, winter contracts rallied upwards after overnight weather forecasts shifted colder in the 11-15 day period. This raises the demand outlook for natural gas into the start of 2021 and reduces the year-over-year storage deficit by about ~25 billion cubic feet. Looking at non-weather related changes in supply and demand, LNG export levels are reaching back towards the 11 Bcf/day level after briefly dropping down below 10 Bcf/day early last week. There have been some early indications that up to 5 LNG cargos may be cancelled for February 2021. While we saw cargo cancellations earlier in the year due to lack of demand, the cause for these cancellations was connected to a lack of ship availability. We will continue to monitor the situation as it develops. For now though, we wish you and your families a safe and warm holiday season. [EG]
December 21st, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Winter Solstice, officially the shortest day of the year today! The January prompt month natural gas contract is officially in it’s last week of trading. As mentioned previously, nearing the end of the contract’s life, volatility typically increases as traders look to exit their long term positions and turn to day trading. For example, the market saw an $0.08 climb from a low at 6:30AM, but came down $0.05 by 8AM. By the 2:30PM close, prices had returned to Friday settle prices, a slight half a cent higher. Prices have currently stabilized at the $2.67 to $2.70 levels, but any significant adjustments in the coming days in weather could cause a move in either direction. If anything, Toronto is looking to stay warm up until the New Year! Note that due to last year’s warm winter, the January contract a year ago ended trading around $2.25. With the holiday season coming up, a couple of changes are to be noted. For one, this week’s storage report will be released on Wednesday as opposed to Thursday. Additionally, natural gas markets will close early at 1:45PM on Christmas Eve, and remain closed until the usual Sunday night open at 6PM EST. ~CL
December 18th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone, we are officially one week away from Christmas for those celebrating! For others, happy holidays, all the joy to whichever festivities you partake-in! Markets as per the norm this week, have been bumping up and down today. The January prompt month contract traded within a $0.07 ranged, climbing to a peak at 11AM before coming back down around $0.03 at the 2:30PM settle. At the time of writing, the contract has returned to it’s 11AM peak of $2.72. Lots of volatility coming and going these days! A quick reminder that natural gas trading comes to a halt at 5PM today and will resume trading at 6PM this Sunday, December 20th at 6PM. ~CL
December 17th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Yet another eventful day for the natural gas market. Prices started the day higher in anticipation of an EIA storage report number indicative of a tighter supply and demand balance year over year, but after the number came in right on market expectations, prices proceeded to decline to a low of $2.60. Mid-day weather model runs added demand to their 14-day forecasts which supported prices going into the close, but the market seems hesitant with an uncertain demand picture into the new year. Indications of milder weather in January will surely send prices plummeting downwards, but production levels off significantly this year compared to last, any above-normal weather demand will result in a reach back to the $3 handle. [EG]
December 16th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | In all honesty, we could probably copy over yesterday’s market update if that’s any indication on today’s activity. The January prompt month contract traded over a range of $0.06, but ultimately settled half a cent lower than yesterday. Other contract months followed a similar pattern to January, so nothing really out of the ordinary. In other news, tomorrow marks another storage release. Recall that last week, after a larger than expected withdrawal, the market followed with a pretty steep climb. Early estimates last Friday for this week’s report looks at an average withdrawal (-) of 120.60 Bcf, a median withdrawal of 121.00 Bcf, with the range of 23 estimates being -138 Bcf to -103 Bcf. Tune back in tomorrow to check how it all actually plays out! ~CL
December 15th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday, the countdown to Christmas is on everyone! Natural gas markets today saw inter-day up and down movement, but the January prompt month contract settled unchanged from Monday, on the dot at $2.682. Weather continues to influence price movements as forecast revisions are made throughout the day. All in all, trading has been relatively steady, and prices will most likely continue to trade in the $2.60 upward to the $2.70 range for the time being. ~CL
December 10th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Markets saw a significant jump today, settling just over 11 cents higher than yesterday. The rally was fueled by today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Storage Report at 10:30AM. Market consensus was centered around an 83 billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal. The actual release showed a withdrawal of 91 Bcf for the week ending December 4th. Recall that a larger than expected withdrawal volume is bullish. Storage volumes act as the plug to the supply and demand equation. When demand is greater than supply, storage needs to be relied upon to balance out the natural gas deficit in the current marketplace. Other than just the storage report today, demand has been added as weather models go through revisions. Prices are now back to last Friday’s levels. Take care! ~CL
December 9th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy middle of the week! Today marked the first higher close for the week with the January prompt month contract settling four cents higher than yesterday. A colder overnight forecast translated into a rally that carried momentum up to just before 9AM. However, as the day progressed, warmer revisions to weather forecasts saw a decline up until 1PM. A climb was seen again slightly after, but prices ultimately moved downwards again into the 2:30PM market settle. At the time of writing, the January contract is back to the $2.43 level. An interesting note, is that the prompt month January contract is now trading lower in price than the February, March, and April contract. This can be seen as reflective of market sentiment. Although a warm winter is to be expected for the time being, further out forecasts always hold less certainty, leaving room for potential change. With that in mind, act upon it, and look to lock in your natural gas rate with a fixed plan while the markets are trading low! Alleviate your worries now regarding higher gas prices in the future. Make sure to browse our website or give us call if you have any questions on how RiteRate can help you in selecting a plan that satisfies your needs. Have a great night everyone, see you all tomorrow! ~CL
December 8th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures prices traded within a wide range before ultimately settling close to unchanged. In contrast with yesterday’s plunge in prices, we saw that later-dated contracts in the summer and winter of 2021 rose a few cents. Driving today’s move higher was day over day changes in weather forecasts that expect to see colder changes towards the end of the 14 day outlook. Could this be a signal of a potential trend reversal or will additional warm weather follow suit, causing further losses for the January 2021 contract? Tune in tomorrow to find out more! [EG]
December 7th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Welcome back to yet another Monday! Countdown is on for Christmas, only 18 more sleeps until we’re there. Natural gas prices are falling yet again with the January prompt month contract falling 15 cents today from when the market opened yesterday at 6PM. Revisions to the weather models over the weekend are once again showing warmer weather, possibly another top 10 warmest winter, following the top 4th warmest November we just had. Weather revisions throughout the day today were tame however, with minimal day time volatility. Although weather is one of the predominant factors in winter natural gas pricing, the net position of the market is contributing as well. The natural gas market so far has seen an excess of long positions (buyers of contracts). As the year looks to round out, most market participants will look to liquidate their positions, taking off uncovered positions. Selling pressure will drive prices down as supply becomes abundant. It is important to remember that this event does not happen frequently, and we can see that the market has since climbed a tad and flattened once again after hitting a low of just under $2.40. With prices at their lowest, you may want to consider the options that RiteRate has for you! By locking into a fixed-rate contract, you can hold on to low natural gas rates no matter what the market does. Tomorrow will be a whole new day, so make sure to tune back in the catch-up on our daily market update! ~CL
December 4th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | After selling off throughout the week, prices for natural gas retraced higher with the January contract settling almost 7 cents higher. The relief rally may be short-lived however, as the base state for weather continues to favor a warmer regime similar to last year. This warmth will outweigh strength in LNG exports and tightened year-over-year production levels as it slashes the space heating demand for natural gas throughout the country. [EG]
December 2nd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Markets appeared to rally early on in the trading day, but fell shortly after 9AM. The prompt month January NYMEX natural gas contract fell approximately $0.17 from peak to close at 2:30PM, down another $0.02 at the time of writing. Downward price pressure for the day was attributable to low cash market prices. The cash market is the daily market for natural gas. As opposed to securing natural gas for the following months ahead of time, the cash market provides supply in the current month (i.e., December). Pricing in the cash market is tied to natural gas futures contract pricing in a way that makes the two market options equivalent to participants. In theory, buying physical natural gas now and holding it until January should be equivalent in price to entering a natural gas futures contract and receiving the gas directly in January. More on this will be explored soon in our Natural Gas 101 with RiteRate! series, so make sure to tune back in! ~CL
December 1st, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | While the settlement for the January 2021 natural gas futures contract was close to unchanged from the previous day, the price change does not reflect the dramatic reversal in overnight weather forecasts. Yesterday afternoon’s European ensemble forecast built the case for a bullish setup, but the overnight run dropped a sizeable amount of weather derived natural gas demand, prompting a sell off the of the previous day’s gains. [EG]
November 30th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy last day of November! Everyone’s back after the American long weekend, and natural gas prices climbed to Friday open levels early on in the day. The colder overnight weather model reports along with strong cash market prices helped in fueling the rally. Momentum was halted however in the January prompt month contract once it crossed the $3 mark. Midday weather model releases hinted at colder weather on the horizon near mid-December throughout Canada and the U.S. as well as Europe all the near-term is somewhat bearish still. Prices will most likely continue to trade slightly under $3 tomorrow, testing that resistance level. ~CL
November 27th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures settled lower on Friday as forecasts for milder weather are priced into the market. Given the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, trading volume and liquidity were lighter than usual which may have allowed prices to be pushed around more easily. Trading action resumes at 6PM EST on Sunday evening, wherein traders will be reviewing changes from over the weekend and factoring them into their supply and demand models for the months ahead. [EG]
November 26th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday and American Thanksgiving to anyone celebrating or know someone celebrating. The U.S. stock market is closed today and only trading for a half day tomorrow. For the natural gas contracts trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), although the market’s still open, albeit with an earlier close, minimal activity was seen today. As a supplement to a rather uneventful market update today, check out our introductory post here to our new up and coming series: Natural Gas 101 with RiteRate!, and our first post: What is Natural Gas? ~CL
November 25th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures contract prices settled in the green for a third consecutive day as weather models continued to add colder temperatures to their 14-day forecasts. Earlier in the morning, a report from the Energy Intelligence Agency noted that a smaller draw than expected was pulled from storage, but that did not stop the December contract from settling up $0.121 or 4.4% on the day. With tomorrow being the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, energy markets will be closed, however we will continue our market coverage for Friday’s open. [EG]
November 24th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy last Tuesday of November, it feels like yesterday when I wrote a very similar line for October… Weather is finally turning around, and natural gas prices are reflecting such. Gas-weighted degree days (GWDDs) are used to gauge weather and subsequent demand. Since yesterday, 19 and 9 GWDDs have been added in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) respectively. The December prompt natural gas contract climbed approximately $0.08 today since yesterday’s close, a shift upwards seen in the following months as well. Overall, we are now up around $0.20 from the low seen back on November 19th. Tomorrow marks the last trading day for the December NGZ2020 contract, so it’ll be interesting to see how and if pricing diverges from the rest of the natural gas curve. Weather aside, this week marks one slightly out of the norm due to those down south observing Thanksgiving this Thursday. Markets will be closed for trading, and the EIA storage report will be released tomorrow. This week’s early survey looks at a range of withdrawals instead of injections between 10Bcf to 47Bcf, average of 29.1Bcf withdrawals, median of 29.5Bcf withdrawals. Tune in for how the storage report actually goes and for news on what happens after the 10:30AM release! ~CL
November 23rd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | As day-over-day weather models continue to add projections for space heating demand, prices have found a steady amount of support to move modestly higher. Atmospheric teleconnections indicate that the warm base state will likely persist into mid-December, however there is a risk for upside to natural gas prices should weather forecasts continue to trend in the colder direction. [EG]
November 20th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone! Yesterday marked a day of new relative lows in natural gas prices, but today saw a slight climb upwards. Although not much has changed in terms of weather models, prices in the prompt month December contract rose over 2%, carrying the momentum yesterday’s from overnight trading session. Prices will most like stay within a tight range as trading activity dwindles over the weekend, but there is still the possibility of a move in either direction depending on any changes in underlying fundamentals. The biggest one to watch for continues to be weather, so any revisions to forecasts will be reflected close to immediately. ~CL
November 19th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Today saw another down day in natural gas trading. At it’s lowest, the prompt month contract fell 6% from yesterday’s settlement price of $2.712. Downwards pressure resulted once again from the extended persistence of warm weather. Although it is colder here in Canada, the natural gas contract pricing benchmark is in Louisiana, where warm temperatures hold. On another note, today marked another U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report day. This week’s number came in at an injection of 31 Bcf, on the higher side. However, prices were not materially affected by the news. As mentioned before, during the winter months, weather becomes the predominant in pricing. A warmer week will lead to less demand. This subsequently leads to a supply surplus, and increased injections as storage looks to balance supply and demand. With this in mind, storage releases look are now looking to more so simply confirm weather impacts. ~CL
November 18th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy middle of the week! Today marked a rather uneventful trading day. With little to no major changes in weather forecasts, it looks like we’re on par to experience the third warmest November since 1950. The December natural gas contract saw a slight climb early on today, but ultimately came back down at the 2:30PM to settle at $2.70 levels, similar to yesterday. Looking further ahead, weather forecasts are expecting continued warmth, now pretty well into December. Tomorrow marks another storage report release day. As of last Friday, early views for this week’s number ranged from an injection of 12Bcf to 50Bcf with an average of 25.4Bcf, and a median of 25.5Bcf. As per last week, join in on the fun and put in your guesstimate as well! Recall that storage is considered a plug to balance the supply and demand of natural gas available in the market. A higher injection number is bearish (i.e., You see pricing downside in the near future), signalling that supply > demand, while a lower number is bullish (i.e., You see pricing upside in the near future). ~CL.
November 17th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | After yesterday’s tumultuous sell-off, natural gas markets were quieter today, with the December futures contract trading within a modest range. Prices ultimately settled just under their closing settlement yesterday as weather models continue to indicate the persistence of above average temperatures heading into the beginning of December. This November stands in stark contrast with the colder weather experienced for the last two years, highlighting just how volatile and prone to swings weather-related demand for natural gas can be. [EG]
November 16th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Monday once again, and what a Monday it has been. Exiting last week on Friday, November the 13th, it looked as though natural gas prices were stabilizing. Entering this week, we aren’t so sure anymore. Since Friday evening, natural gas saw a huge sell-off, with the prompt month December contract dropping around $0.20 on Saturday. A similar drop was seen today, over 10% down from where it opened. Driving the downward pressure on pricing is the increasingly warm forecast that now looks to carry forward into early December. Additionally, power burn demand for natural gas has decreased while production has increased some, widening out the previously tight supply demand balance. As prices fall though, there is the possibility that producers will halt operations again, and that power burn will return to the use of natural gas as opposed to coal. ~CL
November 12th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday! Today marked another rather uneventful trading day for natural gas. Prices were bound by a rather tight $0.10 range, ultimately settling back at previous day levels. The near-term forecast has reflected some colder patterns stemming from up north. However, until a major revision is made to the forecast models further out, the outlook for this winter still looks to be on the warmer side. Price action will prove to be rather stagnant for the time being… Although today would normally be natural gas storage day, we’re a day behind this week, so make sure to tune back in tomorrow for official numbers! Early views show a pretty wide range of analyst estimates from a 12 billion cubic feet (Bcf) withdrawal to a 7 Bcf injection. The median sits around -3 Bcf, also the case for the top 5 survey’s average. Recall that this week’s report is looking at data for the week ending November 6th, 2020, which was rather warm. Join in on the fun, and place a guess on where you think the storage report will come out to be. ~CL
November 11th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures traded in a choppy range throughout Thursday’s trading session, but broke out to the upside after an afternoon 14-day weather model run turned decidedly colder. By the end of the day, the December futures contract gained $0.082 to settle at $3.031. This marks the second day settling positive after six days of selling off due to November’s warm weather pattern slashing the demand for space heating throughout the country. [EG]
November 10th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Tuesday! Following the release of colder trends in the forecast and a drop in production volumes, natural gas prices saw a slight climb today. The prompt month December contract rose 3%, offering some relief from the 50 cent drop. While the supply and demand balance remain tight going forwards, weather is still proving to be the stronger factor. Although colder days are expected for the near term, the 11-15 day weather runs are signalling prolonged warmth, potentially extending into early December. Overall, pricing is expected to remain stable for the time being, but we’ll keep you updated in the case of unexpected moves! ~CL
November 9th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | The battle between the bears and the bulls continued during today’s trading session. Weather patterns continue to show temperatures well above normal, decimating expectations for space heating related demand for the start of the winter season. On the other hand, however, LNG feedgas demand has held near record levels of 10.5 Bcf/day, offsetting the demand loss due to unseasonably mild temperatures. Another interesting development to surface today was the announcement from Pfizer that early data suggests the shots of their vaccine candidate may be 90% effective at preventing COVID-19. ( For a detailed read, I suggest this CBC article: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-faq-1.5795486) [EG]
November 5th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Thursday, Friday Jr., and natural gas storage day! The natural gas market saw another down day today. After a climb early in the day before 7AM EST, the rest of the day only saw red. The prompt month December contract ended up closing out roughly $0.10 down from yesterday. As mentioned before, the weekly storage report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reflects data from the week prior. This week’s release looked at data from the week ending October 30th. Following early predictions, the EIA reported a withdrawal of 36 billion cubic feet (Bcf), approximately 7 Bcf greater than analysts consensus. This also marks the first weekly net withdrawal during the month of October in more than 10 years, reflective of the cold week experienced. A greater than expected report typically would insinuate stronger prices as supply and demand are tighter, but markets barely responded to the news. We can see now, that storage is no longer as large of a concern going into the winter, since sufficient levels have been reached. Instead, the main focus will remain on weather, especially since warmth is now expected to be seen up to the end of the 21 day forecast. ~CL
November 4th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | The steep downward momentum of the last two trading sessions was slowed today with the December contract rebounding up from the intra-day level of $3.00/MMBtu to settle at $3.046, slightly negative to yesterday. With the month of November on track to potentially be the 5th warmest on record (throughout the United States nationally), there are some serious headwinds for higher prices over the remainder of the month, however with the supply and demand balance as tight as it is, any manifestation of colder temperatures in the 14-day weather forecasts could be the catalyst for a price spike higher as we head into the colder winter months. [EG]
November 3rd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy first Tuesday of November everyone, US election day paired with an overall moving day in the natural gas market. This morning saw a pretty extreme revision to the warmer side in the upcoming forecast. In turn, the winter strip, (i.e., December to March), saw an average downward change of $0.18 from yesterday’s settle, and a overall $0.30 downward move from pricing highs over the weekend. The midday weather run saw a slight adjustment that slowed some of the momentum. Prices are now somewhat stable, having reached a previously seen support level. We can truly see the impacts of weather now on winter pricing of natural gas. If another significant revision occurs, we’ll see another move. At this point though, either direction is possible.In other more general terms, welcoming a new addition, please say hello to the addition of fun facts on natty gas. We know that natural gas can seem “dry” at times, but we promise there’s a lot to uncover. Make sure to tune in tomorrow for new updates, especially post US election. Additionally, the launch of an educational series on natural gas is in the works. Stay safe everyone, see you tomorrow! ~CL
November 2nd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | After closing the previous week at contract highs, prices for the December natural gas futures contract plunged $0.11/MMBtu or 3.5% during today’s trading session. Driving today’s price action was the shift to a weaker-demand weather pattern in the 14 day forecast, with indications that warmth could persist into the second half of November. Supply and demand balances continue to remain tight compared to the 5-year average, with production significantly lower than last year and LNG exports hitting new record highs above 10 Bcf/day over the weekend; however, price direction will be determined by the amount of weather-related heating demand going forward. [EG]
October 30th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Despite warmer temperature changes in day-over-day weather model forecasts, futures contract prices for the December 2020 to March 2022 time period surged 1.5% higher from yesterday’s settlement price, indicating that the market is more concerned with the tight supply and demand balance than it is with fluctuations in weather demand. Feedgas demand for LNG export facilities has reached a new all-time record high, with 9.7 billion cubic feet of natural gas being utilized for export to European and Asian markets. LNG exports out of the U.S. Gulf Coast have grown substantially since 2018, and at roughly 10 Bcf/day, they now represent about 10% of demand for natural gas within the U.S. and Canada. [EG]
October 29th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Today has been one of the most exciting first trading days in a while. The December futures contract rolled over as the prompt month and saw tonnes of up and down pricing movements. A lot of different factors contributed, and it seems that the bulls are overpowering at the moment. The day started of relatively weak, a result of a warmer shift in the overnight forecast, dropping over 15 cents from the high before slightly recovering. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released their storage report at 10:30AM EST as per usual, triggering some big moves. The median of analyst estimates had come in at 37 billion cubic feet (Bcf). The EIA report posted 8 Bcf under at 29 Bcf, enough momentum to carry prices upwards until midday. This report also marks the last one where we’ll be seeing a positive injection number, as the industry has already started withdrawing, early estimates looking at 12 Bcf. Trading for the day settled close to yesterday, which seems to be a new trend these days. Make sure to tune back in tomorrow, to see how natural gas looks to wrap up the week.
October 28th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy midweek again everyone! Time is really flying by, only four days left until November hits. Today marked the expiration of the prompt month, November 2020, futures contract. Prices stayed quite strong until the end, closing out just below $3US/MMBtu. The remainder of the contracts December onward have been fairly steady, settling just slightly lower than the previous day. The constant fundamental mentioned on the daily is still weather. Overall, slightly colder moves in the forecast revisions continue. While the Rockies have gotten an early start on the winter memo, temperatures early November are looking warmer both there and everywhere else. The cold advancing eastward is still possible and on the forefront, and if resulting demand turns to be above normal, we could see substantial upward price risks. With the general bullish sentiment, signalling the market’s beliefs in high prices this winter, this could be the starting point to a pretty steep climb. Fear not however as RiteRate’s January start date fixed rate natural gas contracts are still open for sign-ups and renewals! Our contracts will ensure protection against upside price risk, and we’ll always work with you to ensure that your rates are boringly predictable for terms of up to 5 years. Make sure to browse our site or give us a call with questions at (416) 862-0322.
October 26th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Hello to the last Monday of October! This week in the natural gas world, we’re expecting a lot of price volatility. Especially so for prompt month November who’s last trading day is this Wednesday, October 28th, 2020. With that being said, today was a fairly stable trading day, reaching new price highs early on in the day, before a decline midday, followed by a ramp-up into the market settlement at 2:30PM to return prices to around the same levels as this morning. The same pattern was seen as well in the subsequent months. A look at the fundamentals shares the following. The Gulf of Mexico isn’t clear just yet as Tropical storm Zeta has emerged, but overall disruption is expected to stay at a minimum, if not for increased rainfall. Overnight models were colder, but as per usual, midday models undid some of those adjustments to the warmer side further out. Options on the natural gas futures contract expires tomorrow, so we’re expecting lots of fluctuations and potential downside. Make sure to come back for more details on how everything plays out Tuesday afternoon!
October 23rd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Prices of natural gas contracts for winter months eased today after weather forecasts continued to reveal day over day above-average temperatures for the first week of November. The supply and demand balance for these months remains tight due to gradually declining natural gas production levels, however, it remains to be seen how much of a wildcard winter weather demand will be. While the influence of tropical storms and hurricanes has largely subsided at this point in the fall season, we still expect heightened price volatility to continue on the back of this variable weather demand piece.
October 22nd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Following a U.S. Energy Information Administration storage report that came in slightly smaller than expected for last week, the price of the November contract for natural gas held near 20-month highs and ultimately settled $0.02 US/MMBtu lower from yesterday’s settlement price. The governmental agency reported that U.S. utilities injected 49 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, raising the total national inventory level to 3,926 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 16th, 2020. Traders shrugged off this mildly bullish number that is reflective of a tighter supply and demand balance compared to previous years; however, after a recent run-up in prices due to stronger LNG export levels and added weather demand in the 14-day forecast, it makes sense that prices would pull back and consolidate lower.
October 21st, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy middle of the week everyone! It feels as though we’re repeating the same factors everyday, but weather forecasts revisions to the colder side and LNG volumes have driven prices up further. The prompt (or next month, i.e., November) futures contract set new highs today, reaching and surpassing the US$3.00 mark. Prices in the cash market have also been climbing and reflecting in futures. Additionally, the storage injection season is coming to an end within the next 10 days. Come November, previously stored volumes will be withdrawn to balance out the demand surplus in the winter months. Weather will be the ultimate make or break it point for pricing in the upcoming months. An early storage outlook for tomorrow is that the injection will be around 47 billion cubic feet (Bcf) to 49, a slight increase from the previous week’s 46 Bcf injection. Overall though, unless the number released varies significantly, not much will change in pricing as most participants have already priced in the impact, looking only for confirmation.
October 20th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Guess who’s back the week? Volatility. Now seen in inter day swings and the contract month decoupling in some instances from each other. Bullish sentiment was seen this morning primarily from November to January. Additional heating degree days had been added to the forecast and liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand increased to 8.5 Bcf, up 0.5 Bcf from the previous report. Momentum was halted at noon following revisions to the forecast for warmer weather. LNG exports have returned to pre-hurricane levels so further volume changes will hold less significance. Pricing will be heavily dependent on weather forecasts moving forwards, especially with a warm November expected. All-in-all, at the time of writing, November prices settled +$0.10 today, while December 2020 to March 2021 fell on average $0.02. Tomorrow marks another mid-week check-in, so make sure to come back for storage estimates in preparation for Thursday’s EIA release and ongoing changes!
October 19th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures traded in a relatively tight range in today’s session, perhaps reflecting the lack of clarity in 14-day weather model guidance and the timing of progress relating to the restoration of LNG export levels at facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast. If export levels continue to hold above 8.0 Bcf/day heading into November and beyond, weather model forecasts for additional above-normal demand would serve as the catalyst that could fuel a strong rally upwards in price. Should any issues come up for these facilities, which have been battered by hurricanes and logistical issues this fall, prices could respond bearishly as a result. For more coverage of the situation, be sure tune into tomorrow’s update from the RiteRate team.
October 16th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday everyone! Time has really flown by as we welcome mid-October. A couple of different things have happened today resulting in some ups and downs. Additional demand has been added to reflect a colder forecast, but a warm November start is still on the horizon. In fact, the adjustments to the forecast weren’t enough to prevent a pretty steep drop in November prices this afternoon. The sunken barge near the Cameron liquefied natural gas facility is proving to be a bigger problem then expected. News has been floating around that it could take up to three weeks to clear, meaning three weeks of reduced natural gas feed gas demand while production looks to stay steady or even increase. All in all, another volatile week has come and gone. We expect the trend to continue for the time being as no one factor dominates the influence on market sentiment. Have a great weekend, and make sure to stay safe and tune back in for more news next week!
October 14th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | November prices have come down yet again today, although the downward price pressure has been limited out to March 2021. Yesterday we mentioned that the market was bullish due to the minimal disruption from Hurricane Delta. Today other factors have changed that outlook. Warmer weather expectations for early November are being reflected with constant forecast updates. The Cameron liquefied natural gas facility is also facing limited access from a sunken barge, reducing the demand for natural gas. A lot of uncertainty surrounds the timeline for resolution here, so we’ll have to wait and see how things play out. Lastly, some supply of natural gas has already returned as producers rejoin the marketplace. Tomorrow marks the weekly release of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) natural gas storage report as we look to round out the shorter week. See you then!
October 13th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures for the upcoming winter settled moderately lower after trading within a tight range throughout the day. Prices had moved higher yesterday in the aftermath of Hurricane Delta; it had became clear that there would be only minimal disruption to liquefied natural gas export facilities on the Gulf Coast. Weather forecasts had also called for temperatures moving colder in the 14-day outlook yesterday, however, overnight and mid-day weather model runs erased some of the additional forecasted demand. As we head into the start of the winter season in November, these weather model runs will be closely watched by traders looking to derive implications for natural gas demand. Stay tuned for more coverage as the situation unfolds.
October 9th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Happy Friday! It’s been a whirlwind of a week but we have made it. Welcome to our daily blog post, a little earlier than usual today, but lots of news all the same. Natural gas prices have been on a steep climb today led by November all the way out to March 2022. Over the past few days, demand volume has been consistently added to analyst forecasts, an accumulation from colder weather projections and the outlook that Hurricane Delta won’t hit as many export facilities as the previous few hurricanes. Higher prices are expected to continue until anything major changes, especially for the winter of 2020 and beyond. Hope everyone has a safe Thanksgiving long weekend, see you Tuesday!
October 8th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | The prompt month of the November contract for natural gas traded within a wide range today following the release of the EIA’s weekly storage inventory report, which reported a net injection of 75 billion cubic feet of natural gas for the week ending October 2nd, 2020. Prices shrugged off the slightly bearish report and strengthened over the course of the day as weather model runs added demand in their 14-day outlooks for another consecutive day. It remains to be seen whether this demand will persist into the month of November, but provided it does, prices will respond bullishly.
October 7th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | The talk of town is still Hurricane Delta. Although not on the forefront of our minds here in Canada, the natural gas community can’t seem to get away. Our blog post yesterday summarized it’s potential impacts. As Delta’s projected arrival this Friday appears on the horizon, the market has been responding in turn. Volatility and uncertainty were key words earlier this week, but today saw a return to a more stable state. Prices are starting to climb again! A significant volume of natural gas is drilled in the Gulf of Mexico. Suppliers in the region will look to halt production temporarily in the news of an upcoming storm. This effectively reduces the supply available to meet the existing demand, making what is available more valuable.While the magnitude and duration of impacts arising from Delta aren’t certain at the moment, the market is still looking at higher natural gas prices this winter and beyond. Protect your home or business from price increases by signing up for a fixed-rate natural gas contract with RiteRate. We’ll always work with you to keep your natural gas rates … boringly predictable. Thanks for dropping by, make sure to tune back-in tomorrow!
October 6th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | After a morning rally that sent the prompt month November contract upwards to the 2.70 level, prices fell sharply and settled at the 2.52 US/MMBtu level on concerns that Hurricane Delta could disrupt more liquefied natural gas exports than Gulf of Mexico production.
The most recent hurricane trajectory from the NOAA has Delta heading directly for Louisiana, where a number of export facilities are located. With the damage to LNG facilities from recent hurricanes fresh in traders’ minds, it makes sense that traders are accounting for the potential downside risk to LNG being offline should the hurricane significantly disrupt LNG exports.
October 5th, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Volatility is in the air and everywhere! After natural gas prices fell to a low point last Friday, they saw a significant rebound today for all months until March 2023. A lot is changing and affecting the natural gas market these days. A few highlights include: constant adjustments to the weather forecast, concerns on the high volume of excess gas in North American storage facilities, and the arrival of tropical storm Delta expected to hit and hinder production regions this Friday. Prices will look to bump around for this week as uncertainty continues to be on the horizon. Looking further out however, the general market sentiment leans toward higher winter prices extending into 2021 and beyond. Look to take some of that uncertainty off the table by locking into a fixed-rate contract with RiteRate. We’ll always work with you to keep your natural gas rates … boringly predictable. Make sure to tune back-in tomorrow for another Natural Gas Market Update!
October 2nd, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | Natural gas futures settled lower in the day’s trading session, testing their lowest level since August 13th. Forecasts for weakness in weather-driven demand, flat liquefied natural gas (LNG) export levels, and concerns regarding storage reaching containment levels before colder weather arrives have been encouraging long traders to offset their positions and aggressive short-sellers to press prices lower. We expect prices will trade sideways to lower throughout the first few weeks of October as the U.S. and Canada experience continued mild national weather conditions, however, the resumption of higher LNG export flows or a colder shift in the weather pattern could act as the catalysts needed for a retracement to September price highs.
October 1st, 2020 – Natural Gas Market Update | The national weather forecast for the next fourteen days paints a weak picture for natural gas demand which will continue to weigh on near-month contracts. At the time of writing, the winter strip price, November 20 to March 21, has fallen 2.3% throughout today’s trading session. We expect that prices will continue to trade sideways to lower until additional weather-related demand materializes.